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I spoke too soon, looks like the come back of the SFP is having an impact in the Fed funds market. At this point I dont know if the additional QE will counter this impact, maybe not http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA7dchuaWe_Q&pos=5

Which hawks?Just in the last 48 hours, 5 Fed members(some voters, some not) came out with either extended period support, that includeds Richard Fisher and Bullard, guys who supposed to be hawks. Hoenig is alone, the guy must have lost his voice during 2009 meetings to no avail

Lets say the snowstorm had the impact of -50K, this is probably exaggerated. So more than 6 months after the 'end' of the recession the economy still cant create jobs. This is a jobless/inflationless recovery, not the kind of enviroment where ones needs to be worried about rate hikes. I'm far...

Trying to time market during NFP is like playing roulette blindfolded. Yes GE could do down, it could also go up, I dont have a clue what the number is nor how the market will react. I do know that my math says those 99 calls will be worth 70bps at expiration(now taking into account a 5bps...

Well, I just sold all my Jul ZQ 2010. EFF drifting up, 15 bps in yesterday's release and 16 bps today. I read in the macro man blog that there are some rumours the GSE will get kicked out of the fed funds market, this would make ZQ quite expensive at these levels as the EFF might drift back to...

I'm still short this. I take this cash out by the management as a sign that they think the government will crack down on their business and the stock will go down

The EFF has began to drift up, maybe as a result of the SFP. Hit avg 15bps yesterday

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35695111

As of Feb 22, US is still in a credit crunch "Banking and Finance Loan demand remained weak across the country. New York, Cleveland, and Kansas City reported decreased demand for most types of loans. Other Districts said loan demand was unchanged but soft. Richmond and Chicago noted that the...

But lets face it, Canada did not had a banking crisis, they are not in a credit crunch. They are also a net exporter of commodities

David Rosenberg seems now to be reversing his call for the Bank of Canada to keep rates low for all 2010 and some of 2011 He cites some facts but after that sounded like he was giving up on his dovishness "Never before has the Bank of Canada successfully embarked on a tightening course in...

Everyone and their mothers(including tons here at ET) were calling for a recession in 2007, some said 'If there is a recession this will be one of the most antecipated recessions ever, I dont buy it'. Contrarianism works, then it doesnt work, it resembles flipping a coin. VN would argue the coin...

Good luck aligning your FF view with this jobless recovery, whether you think 0% rates help or not is irrelevant, the FOMC thinks it helps and they set it

W Tilson interview http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=86050

I will do the work for free

One small detail about the FOMC which I was not aware "All of the Reserve Bank presidents, even those who are not currently voting members of the FOMC, attend Committee meetings, participate in discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options. The...

No, GS will disclose they own CDS on almost every country in the EU and their credit exposure is actually short. And in a related story they will disclose they went long the S&P500 three weeks ago

I'm trying to find a way to bet against the euro Taleb style. But it seems that the options at the euro futures contract only goes to Dec 2010 and that might be too early. The big boys dont have much trouble calling GS and getting some kind of derivative, but for the average IB trader its hard...

In this video Hoenig, clearly says fed needs to take out extended period statement before hiking, says Fed wont sell assets this year http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1429442491&play=1 Heres the statement word for word "we need to begin to prepare the market...take away the extended...

Hoenig on CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1429256844&play=1 It appears to me that he just laid out himself the argument agains the 'lets hike once or twice and stop', he says policy expectations would change and behavior would change, people would think a new cycle has begun. So...