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I guess China is not happy with this, they are the #1 client of NY Fed http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aRQYFaBvBc_g

What a massive day in the front end, the market seems a bit slow but now is digesting the 'we rather be late, guys'

Hoenig will dissent every meeting till he is out of the FOMC due regional rotation

Drobny Interview http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=ayAksBzlrjdo

ralph00, say goodbye to your 1% FF by summer http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/07/feds-dudley-calls-for-action-on-bubbles/ "The official indicated interest rate policy is not the best tool to moderate a market that’s running wild. Because every bubble is its own beast, “a...

Interesting, this guy David Altig sits on the FOMC as a watcher http://macroblog.typepad.com/ He might let it slip a few interesting details(that will not be priced by the markets because the information is too damn hidden) You can check all the people that watch and are present in the...

EFF printed 0.20% yesterday, its been a while at that level. Libor is reaching 0.30%, the OIS 3m is at 0.21%, to me this is surprising, the rise in the EFF has been steady and it might not stay around 18bps as I had expected

Lacker is crazy as ever http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1461464858&play=1 Says supports extended period but doesn't think its a time table, Fed will still do policy based on the data. That doesnt make much sense, they ALWAYS do policy based on the data, one should ask him: what is the...

Bernanke 2002 "There are at least two ways of bringing down longer-term rates, which are complementary and could be employed separately or in combination. One approach, similar to an action taken in the past couple of years by the Bank of Japan, would be for the Fed to commit to holding the...

Heres what I found that stood out "A number of members noted that the Committee’s expectation for policy was explicitly contingent on the evolution of the economy rather than on the passage of any fixed amount of calendar time. Consequently, such forward guidance would not limit the...

Dude, this Fed is only beginning discussing the targeting of bubbles, there has been no speeches(to my knowledge) where Bernanke says the fed should address bubbles by using the fed funds tool. The only mention he did was back in Oct or Nov 2008(if my memory is right) where he said the fed would...

Check the fed mandate, Bernanke wont trying to pop the stock market with core inflation going down to around 0.5%(like Pimco and GS are forecasting). And the market is far from a bubble by Shiller PE standards

Well, 35% is a lot either way. Furthermore I believe I can safely disregard a 50bps hike by a bigger factor than the FF options might be pricing in

I got it from here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aAyOAlOcURis

Of course there is the risk that the first hike is 50bps or more. But anyone who thinks a FOMC lead by Ben Bernanke, Dudley and by Sep Janet Yellen is going to start a hike cycle by dropping a neutron bomb in the markets is crazy. Yes down the line they might hike more and faster but the first...

I dont understand some people's aversion for ZQ. According to a bloomberg article the sep 2010 contract is pricing in around a 52% chance of a rate hike, there is simply no way there is a 52% the fed hike rates that early, therefore anyone long is picking up that premia. Now maybe I'm...

Just picked up some AUG and SEP ZQ. I hope I'm correct regarding the FOMC statement today

CS is saying fed will change language http://pragcap.com/credit-suisse-expect-a-change-in-fed-language-as-labor-market-improves Both Fisher and Bullard didnt mention anything about changing language soon(they just say they dont like it, thats all). Big hawks who sit at the FOMC meetings...

Tiger now a 5-1 dog at betfair. Its getting tempting to give it a shot, he's got no pressure on him as everyone expects him to do badly http://www.cnbc.com/id/36179212

The front end got wacked, unfairly in my view. The payroll report wasnt great, it was bellow consensus by some 40K, put the revisions in and you can call that a slighly good report. I'm probably going back at full speed on ZQ tomorrow, perhaps AUG 2010. And I will be protected by the Dudley 'at...