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Looks like the next Fed bet will be when they will raise in 2011, 2010 hike is now totally off the table for real(inflation, resource utilization and inflation expectations are all supporting 0% rates). 1st meeting is on Jan 25-26, so the Feb or Mar contract looks attractive. 1 or 2 meetings...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGGBE10:IND

FDIC guaranteed bank CDs. Everbank pays something like 2% annualized for new checking accounts, the CDs might be even better

The pre-LEH libor-OIS was running around 50bps to 100bps for more than a year. We're in crisis who knows when it comes back

Heck during a crash all S&P500 members might have a 2% decline limit to prevent 'unpatriotic selling of american securities'

"the six-month core CPI trend is all the way down to a 0.28% annual rate — last there in December 1960" US might be reaching deflation territory soon, at least on a 6m basis

The Bill Gross lastest Total Return Fund positioning shows that he is selling bunds(apparently) and buying USTs, maybe he is not too happy with Germany paying all the bailouts

GMT [Dow Jones]Economists at Deutsche Bank push back their Fed rate hike call, seeing the first hike in Q4 this year rather than Q3. Tame inflation and euro-zone debt problems are the main reasons for the change. "Our year end fed funds target is now 0.75% compared to 1.25% previously," say the...

"The core rate rose 0.9 percent from April 2009, the smallest increase since January 1966, after a 1.1 percent year- over-year advance the prior month."

Heck, the way inflation is going the debate should be if the Fed even should removes 'extended period' this year, nevermind rate hikes

Core CPI yoy 0.9%, lower than the 2003 deflation scare

Thats why I believe lots of the Goldman 'smart' hedging might just be lucky guesses. They dont seem to have an edge to predict markets any more than the other IBs

FOMC voter: "In my view, this outlook warrants exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period of time" http://www.cnbc.com/id/37213775 The street is already changing their views, looks like the last people still believing the fed might hike this year is the Fed...

That should close the deficit

People keep listing the 'fundamentals' as a reason on why a rally cant be sustained, those folks dont trade thats why they say that. The 'fundamentals' can be interpreted many different ways, if people change their mood, than all the sudden bad news will be ignored. I'm not looking to start an...

I suppose a bullet they could use this weekend is to deny the Sarkozy drama. Not through aides but by the people in the meeting, the thing is it could have really happened, so they will have to lie

It could have if the sale was made during the peak of a panic near the daily lows, but it would be only temporary

The issue with this theory is that flow of money to an asset does not necessarily impacts its equilibrium to a large extend. We are seeing that right now with the Swiss Franc that keeps rising despite CB intervention. We could have seen on the crash last week, where a large ES seller crashed the...

There is an interesting section on Invisible Hands where 'The Researcher' said some of the stock boom from 2003 to 2007 and 1925 to 1929 was the result of tax cuts in the upper income area. He calls them the 'investing class', with more money in their pockets they helped to push the market...

I'm sure this will work out great for Biotech stocks