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Must read by Montier http://www.zerohedge.com/article/james-montier-debunks-traditional-asset-allocation-theory He does goes into the 'problem' with commodity futures that I'm yet to understand fully. If its such a slam dunk that the contracts are priced to create a negative roll return...

From Breakfast with Dave: "CAN WE EXPECT A 30-40% CORRECTION? There have only been two other times when the stock market ran parabolically up from a low in barely over a year, as was the case this time around (+80% from March 2009 to April 2010): the 112% surge from June 1, 1932 to September...

Most of my funds are in USD which I hedge by shorting a number of pairs, including USD/XAU(at Oanda). About 15% of the hedges are in gold and bit of silver, thats a lot already, if I'm wrong there I stand to lose quite a bit. EUR/USD EUR/CHF should move regardless of what commodities do.

Its funny that Japan was criticized for not reforming their banking system but more and more developed countries are using the japanese banking plan. Banking systems now resemble Thriller, I'm sure if Geithner convince them to do a stress test that test will say 'everything is fine' otherwise...

As I understand EU banks hold sovereign debt at cost and they dont have to market it to market as interest rates change. A possible solution that might be adopted is to restructure greek debt by extending its maturities, this wouldn't hit the banks(at least not officially) and it would resemble...

Looks like there are more bullets left to the central banks. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703341904575266722784462634.html -Fed can cut its rate on the swap lines with the ECB(Currently OIS+100bps) -Fed can re-initiate TAF for longer maturities -ECB can cut rates...

"1805 GMT [Dow Jones] Given the fast moving troubles of Europe, the discount rate meeting minutes from last month showed a growing but still minority interest in hiking the central bank's emergency lending rate. The Fed has expressed interest in raising that rate back to its normal relationship...

The subprime crisis is contained, round 2 “Sovereign debt crises have been with us for many, many years. There is nothing intrinsic about such crises that they need to become important shocks to the broader, global macroeconomy.”...

One potential investment idea as a result of the BP oil spill is to play the trend towards decreased offshore drilling. The pressure will be huge to over-regulate this activity and in some cases just flat out ban it. As a result the US will have to turn to Canada and canadian oil sands. I'm not...

This is an interesting post that raises the question of whether the US can 'turn japanese' without demographic issues http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/05/japans-lost-decade-not-really-lost

My guess is that they will raise that $600 limit, a lot. Otherwise small businesses would just get toasted

Is this for real?I remember Henry Paulson going to congress and saying this measure was considered extremely costly and unworkable and they decided to scrap it

These two have very different maturities so its not an apples to apples comparison

There is some method to this madness. I sold a bit of SPY at the pre-market -1%, still long some ES. Of course, by the open all the losses were erased. Typically when I get an urge to jump in momentum the market is about to reverse, and when I'm too scared about being long mean reverting assets...

IB Papertrade has always 100% guaranteed liquidity

Interesting presentation about Spain http://www.businessinsider.com/guide-to-the-spanish-debt-crisis-2010-5#-1 I was actually short BBVA most of last year, I gave up as that stock would NOT stop going up. Now that thing is back at my original short price and I'm considering playing their...

There is also Build America Bonds in large municipalities that are unlikely to fail but I'm not sure they are liquid or how to buy them

If the risk trade really collapses we will see the Morgan Stanley laughable theory of credit also collapse. They argued that the Fed Senior Loan Survey at record highs in terms of credit wasn't a big deal because its 2nd derivative had turned and historically that correlated with lots of...

Yeah, what the 'Europe doesnt matter' folks are missing is not the trade or financial links but the stock market link. I'm on the view that this recovery was partially the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy created by the stock market, which spread to the corporate bond market, liquidity came...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/25/world/asia/25korea.html?hp