Search results

As far as Canada goes their front-end contract is showing some weird pricing http://www.m-x.ca/nego_cotes_en.php?symbol=BAX Jun 2010 trading at 99.13, even though the 3m bankers acceptance has averaged something like 65bps http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/interest-look.html The...

Apparently Canada doesnt have a fed funds futures equivalent, only a '3 MONTH CANADIAN BANKERS' ACCEPTANCE FUTURE', which is their Libor equivalent. And it seems that the australian 'bank bill future' is nothing more than a contract that moves with their own libor This adds another factor to...

I added 2 charts to the OECD data, charts of housing valuation for major bubble countries, in the 'housing price ratios' tab. It was made on Open Office so there might be issues

Looking at OECD data both Canada and Australia didnt had a bubble much different from the US, Spain, UK, Ireland, France as measured by price to income and prices to rent. Given that they are net exporters of commodities they should have a more benign outcome than these unless we have a new...

I reviewed some Gluskin Sheff reports on canandian housing and it does appear to exist a bubble. This wont affect the canandian banks though as most of the mortgages in the last years has been guaranteed by the government, but it will affect their budget deficits, central bank rates and possibly...

What is the foundation to the idea the canadian home prices are in a bubble? It doesnt seem that out of line compared to the US http://worthwhile.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451688169e2010536acf84d970c-pi Its important to remember that countries exposed to commodities are quite likely to have...

Interesting article http://dmarron.com/2010/05/27/consumer-spending-is-not-70-of-the-economy/

Matter of fact the real discussion will be when the Fed throws the towel and starts QE round 2. Given the persistent deflationary forces and M2 in negative territory(and lately declining inflation expectations) the Fed needs to purchase assets in order to make up for the lack of lending(contrary...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a3BEeJ9UMYO0 As I said before the debate is whether extended period stays on for the entire 2010 period, not if the fed hikes rates(which they wont) Evans is a 2011 voter, looks like the front end will be a good trade for next year too, its...

BP has the biggest interest in solving this problem, they will find a way

Bellucci is a 37-1 to dog against Nadal on Roland Garros, insane, there is just no way Nadal is 98% to win the match, his odds of injury got to be around 1-2%(especially after playing so much in clay season), add in the odds of him playing bad and it seems that its positive expectation to fade...

This is a silly argument against peak oil(which I have no clue when it will happen), there a thousands of oil wells around the world gushing oil like a 'son of a bitch', its just that the oil is being captured and refined

Do nothing. The great moderation is over, volatility is here to stay even if it goes away sometimes. Thats my view, and dont bitch when its temporarily low because anyone living in the developed world making hundreds of thousands a year doesnt have the right to bitch about the current state of...

Why dont you short volatility then

No it was God's work, but I guess thats the same thing

S&P needs to be exorcised

The trend in final sales has great implications for future corporate profits, GDP growth correlates with corporate profits growth, which is why the expensive speculative multiple put by the stock market was insane to begin with. But the market is waking up

Breakfast with Dave "Averaging out the past four quarters, real final sales have averaged 1.3% at an annual rate, which represents the weakest post-recession recovery in demand on record – it is usually running closer to a 4% annual rate at this juncture, which is alarming in view of all the...

New cycle low for the Fed's preferred inflation measure ' Year-ago core PCE inflation edged down to 1.2 percent from 1.3 percent in March.. '

Hussman on bloomberg http://www.businessinsider.com/john-hussman-market-overvalued-2010-5 I hope he becomes a regular there. Says breath and leadership reversal historically indicates a -7% return for stocks in the near-term and -20% for 12 months later I also remember from his own...