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People tend to overestimate these things in times of panic, you are capturing an historical premium The HAL puts might be even better though $15 2011 puts closed at $0.99 yesterday, balance sheet is cleaner and they might not endup paying anything. The 4 horseman are rallying this morning...

Not sure what you mean

Of course the key to shorting that put, is to size the position in a conservative way and be comfortable with the max downside as well, be aware of how it impacts the margin, just pick a $1 in the ground rather than try to get rich

I'm a buyer at current levels, its just that I'm nervous about NFP reports, they tend to be asymmetric, the drops are usually massive and gains small but everyone knows that, maybe its already in the price. I have no clue what they will do tomorrow

One serious possibility of profiting from the BP is to short puts at levels that would make the stock a huge bargain http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/2010/Jun/2010_Jun_03.asp?printdoc=print I like this trade, yes you lose a lot if BP goes bankrupt and people who follow the risk reward...

Hey Martin, how are you positioning yourself for the next 1 or 2?

I'm unloading Aug and Sep this morning. Still keeping the Dec in(the largest position). I'm considering selling before the number and buying after

An interesting article about Venture Capital and startups http://pmarchive.com/guide_to_startups_part1 There are 2 type of investment opportunities I dont myself even doing it. One is running a business(a real business, non-fund management) and the other is picking real estate(other than...

Walkaways growing popular http://www.cnbc.com/id/37471499

Fascinating article in the new yorker about wikileaks and its owner http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/06/07/100607fa_fact_khatchadourian?printable=true It seems that they have a sophisticated security system involving a number of different countries

I dont believe the liabilities at present value will be all that massive. But its true, this is not a slam dunk, which is why I'm not pulling the trigger. But I'd say its likely one of the 4 horseman is a huge buy

Mr. Mortgage tells me by email he is short the homebuilders but is afraid that the trade is too obvious

A chinese recession would be like the 74 US recession, CRB would correct. At some point it would end, global GDP would resume its trend and the boom would continue

Another strategy to profit from the commodity boom that I forgot to mention are junk bonds issue companies with commodity exposure. IB only has US corporate bonds but I bet the canandian and australian market have a ton of companies issuing debt there, the good thing about it is that in the case...

Would you go anywhere near the BPs and RIGs of the world, given what is going on in the Gulf of Mexico? We've done a ton of research into it. Who is at fault? We have no idea. But we do know how this plays out in the standard sense of legal ramifications, and this is all on BP. Unless you have...

This analyst is an oil expert whom I respect http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/2010/Jun/2010_Jun_02.asp?printdoc=print Says he is not buying the 4 horseman of the spill yet but likes the sector

CREA says Canadian housing is not a bubble http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/housing_report_2010.pdf Of course they have a vested interest in saying things are ok, but they do make some points that need to be debunked for any housing bear before proceeding

With regards the BP trade, there might be a slam dunk there. BP RIG HAL APC all fell by a similar amount, there is just no way the liabilities will be distributed evenly. Its just a matter of figuring out who will get the least(maybe $0), in terms of costs and subtract the loss of that well to...

Here's an article about possible gold peak levels http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm It all seem interesting but I'm afraid this analysis is irrelevant, what determines the gold price is investor psychology, not rational thinking about economic indicators. The peak will be an arbitrary...

Its interesting that the 'blame the EUR' has not arrived yet. In fact the union is still quite strong given all the money moving around. I suspect a default could involve that kind of blame game, if Greece leaves, they wont blame the reform, the might just blame the currency