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What is the historical record of your indicators?

It should help they keep easy money for longer as it will fuel disinflation but not for the reason you are mentioning. The FOMC are all trained economists(at least till Obama started appointing nobodies), not mercantilist politicians. It seems that some there are not worried about low core...

Oanda has USD HUF

'The employment-population ratio was about unchanged over the month at 58.7 percent' No net jobs created

Some opinions on the gulf spill http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/2010/06/oil-services-equipment-dead-cat-or.html

Hoenig doesnt seem to be operating with any kind of logic lately. All I know if that if ES goes to 900 ish the 10y breakeven might get dangerously close to 1%. At that point I wouldn't be surprised if the dovish wing of the Fed starts QE2 talks

"1239 GMT [Dow Jones] The broadest measure of unemployment, the so-called U-6 rate, that captures total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally...

Sold at 99.655 bought back at 99.678 loss of 2.5bps plus commish. Ouch

If the stock hits $10 and I consider that a big bargain, I could allocate more capital to it. There is nothing preventing me from having to keep my risk constant as prices change Furthermore, the probabilities of the stock falling is already embedded in the option premium, so if you dont...

Here's one reason why Hoenig is wrong http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aBKqsQ__Lkkk The market is already hiking rates, as the EU situation unfolds negatively the tightening should increase. Libor already hiked 25bps, lower quality corporate bonds are already yielding...

Sold most of the fed futures position, will buy back after the report. I'm not a fan of doing this as it might cost me some money overtime but I will have to consider that insurance cost, hopefully on net it will be positive contributor

John Taylor who was very critical of the Fed for not hiking more and faster and for fueling bubbles said yesterday that rates are "where they should be I think". Hoenig is in another planet

From Bernanke speech "For example, some potential borrowers have been turned down because lending terms and conditions remain tighter than before the financial crisis, perhaps reflecting banks' concerns about the effects of the recession on borrowers' economic prospects and balance sheets. From...

'Please be advised that IB reserves right to increase margin requirement in light of the increased market volatility. Unfortunately whether we will or will not increase the margin requirement to/above the maximum losses amount for short put position cannot be predicted at this time. I hope this...

Lets say you short 1 put $10 strike, your maximum loss is $1000. Could IB raise your margin req to above that?I asked them that and they said they did not give a direct answer

I asked IB if they would increase margin requirements on a short put position to a level above the maximum loss. The answer 'Please be advised that IB reserves right to increase margin requirement in light of the increased market volatility. Unfortunately whether we will or will not increase...

Doesn't sound like much, potential gain is around 0.1%. But 15 opportunities like this in a year, and we are talking about an addition of 1-1.5% returns a year, and thats because I dont use this strategy much. If I become more confident(or happen to have high cash levels) the returns could...

Looks like Soros might have celebrated too soon http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag9dseFh4tOY

I shorted a bit of HAL 17.5 2011 puts. My max loss is just 2% of my netwoth if the stock is worthless by then, I can't refuse cheap money

I found Lockhart speech wasn't all hawkish, had some dove statements http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/06/03/feds-lockhart-warns-of-higher-rates-before-jobless-rate-returns-to-normal/ “The conditions that require a change of policy are not yet at hand,” and “I continue to support the...