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Hussman Recession Warning http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100628.htm -Calling for another recession -March 2009 lows not safe(I'm playing this through SPY May 2011 70.00 puts) -12% UR Anyone who says no double dip better be prepared to ignore a hybrid model that has only failed once...

Mauldin is putting double dip odds at 60% and says we will have more QE http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo062510.pdf The net fiscal tightening for next year IIRC was $300b, based on deficit projections from the government

With real final sales avg 1.2% and the last being 0.8%, there doesn't seem to exist a lot of buffer to absorb a slowdown till both growth and employment turns negative. With regards to rates, I accept that there could be a small tightening, I'm assuming there is a chance(that is hard to...

What about your views on the likelihood of another US recession or at least a slowdown? What about the chances that grow picksup and the US reaches 'escape velocity'?

The farther that I see is ZQ/FF May 2012 liquidity of 1 contract per side with a spread of 2bps

There is another element here, the Fed purchasing $1.7T barely increased the money supply. If there is another recession, imagine the kind of disinflationary/deflationary shock that is going to be. Almost certainly the means core CPI goes negative. This means the Fed will have to go the other...

If there is a double dip yes. We would be reaching new highs in the UR in 2011. Furthermore iirc the avg is something like 2ys for a hike after the end of a recession. Not necessarily the main scenario, the 100bps off protection is what makes this interesting

Actually more like shorting high inflation hyperinflation calls

Its important to note that such position due its illiquidity is like shorting highinflation/hyperfinflation puts. So its something to keep in mind when position sizing it

One of the things regarding the Fed Futures is that its almost certaintly better to buy the WAY back futures rather than the ones in the 6-8 month in the future range, if you believe the Fed stays low. The reason is that the risk reward there is just massive. I'm considering doing that, the...

I have no idea where to get real final sales from 30's data but GDP expanded very strongly after bottoming in 1933. So this recovery could be the weakest recovery in like a century or something. So it would be the most exposed to a double dip or to a stagnant level, "escape velocity" looks like...

I have no idea how John Paulson can be bullish on housing and say double dip risks are "10%", which he apparently said in a speech yesterday. Until I can read a sound, detailed view explaining this view, I can't do anything other than just ignore it

Real Final Sales 0.8% vs 1.4% prev on weak consumer spending. Double dip looking more likely

EFF hit 0.16% yesterday, been drifting down for a while, something is going on there

Read 'Soros on Soros' book. He got tired of Rogers never accepting that he could be wrong, only others. The partnership just deteriorated and they went separate ways

Hatzius sees a modest decline in home prices http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-housing-prices-will-keep-falling-for-two-years-2010-6

Lets call it a hybrid then

Oh and btw, this UST 10y rally has trigged one more criteria of the Hussman recession modeal ' A yield spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield of anything less than 3.1%' Now all that is necessary is "4: Moderating ISM and employment growth: Manufacturing...

Tilson still long BP although he concedes it could be a $0. Still short homebuilders, might trim down to take some profits http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1528765696&play=1

Gross is calling for more Fed stimulus in the form of capping 2y rates http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1528852993&play=1 Says fed should change language to 'hyper extended period'. Its going to be funny if the economy tips into recession or a significant slowdown. The Fed will again...