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He should be a comedian

This ZQ bet I will put in a way that either I will make 20-25% or lose about 13%. I'm figuring in the best scenario the Dec 2011 pays 55bps, at worse it loses 25bps in a Hoenig scenario(1% Fed funds then wait and see). There is the chance of some scenarios in between, but they are mostly...

"Democrats May End TARP Program Early to Help Fund Financial Overhaul Bill: Sen. Dodd" They will drive without a seat belt now

"The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index tumbles almost 10 points to 52.9 as worries about jobs, recovery flare." I'm sure the stock market decline had something to do with this, and the market fell mostly as a result of European worries. Thats what some bulls are missing in terms of the EU...

Sure but how they compare to the Congress and WH in terms of power?I'm sure there are hawks here and there but the vast majority in Washington wants fed on hold. Greenspan even said he never had a request for a hike by Congress. The guy from the budget got sacked for disagreeing with Summers and...

I'm not sure what you mean by this given that political pressures are to keep zero rates

I suppose it could be the fact that GDP fell in 2008 and 2009 it would add some inflationary potential to the M2 pop from the first QE program. The problem is that velocity also fell. To see what happened on net, one would have to look at nominal GDP(essentially M2 x Velocity), its growing at 3%...

Milton Friedman is known for saying that M2 growth needs to be "in the range of 4% to 6%, just about the rate required for a rapidly growing non-inflationary economy" So either the Fed doesnt believe on its own forecasts(3-4.5% GDP growth) or they think there will be a boom in money...

I was considering that the Fed wasn't worried about M2 weak growth because of the M2 engineered pop they did in 2008 Q4 and some of 2009. But looking at the numbers here, it doesnt appear that the pop will do much in terms of future inflation 2007 M2 $7,299T 2010 M2 $8,512T +15% over 3...

A square root, it seems to be it would me something like 1-2% GDP, 100K NFPs(With UR not moving much up or down) and stable inflation What would be the reasoning for a Fed hike in 2011?

List of economic issues by Calculated Risk blog "1) less Federal stimulus spending in the 2nd half of 2010. The decline in stimulus will probably be a drag of about 0.5% on GDP growth by Q4. 2) the end of the inventory correction. The inventory adjustment contributed 3.79 percentage points...

Well, he's sort right, there are so many schools of economics and bloggers tend to be of different types of thinking(typically they recommend opposite polices and attribute the problem to different things), so by definition a lot of them, probably most of them, have to be wrong . The thing is...

This is fucked up, IB threated to force a buy-in of my ITB short because they are not being able to locate shares and thus my position would become a naked short. I switched over to XHB but that is a scary though, if PPD suffers from the same problem, they would hit me for the bid ask spread...

Martin, Why you dont give much credit to the Hussman hybrid model and the double dip?Rosenberg said today his firm model(which he doesnt appear to disclose), puts double dip chances at 48%. It seems to me that chances are high specially after the failure in the voting of more stimulative...

I'm starting to transition from ZQ Dec 2010 to Dec 2011. I'm choosing the Dec 2011 because liquidity will flow there first as compared to the 2012 ones, and thats worth something. Once I get stronger evidence of double dip I will decide if I go huge there, at this moment I'm simply selling out...

I'd also note that some of the ZQ liquidity issues can be offset by shorting more near term liquid contracts, allowing one to change its mind. You can lose on the spread and probably will as they tend to drop more than the near term ones but its better than the alternative and it limit...

Through 2009 I had some urges to go really all-in in Fed Futures, because I could see no way the fed would raise rates and the pricing in the futures seemed just ridiculous. After the Jun ZQ crash I bought a decent sized position but I still held back a really large trade Now this double...

Yeah, just like someone on ET said in 2007 "If there is a recession this will be the most anticipated recession in history, I'd fade the crowd" or something to that effect. Double dip is the contrarian trade not the other way around

Hussman's point is that it correlates with the ISM well after a lag. Furthermore I'm not sure when they change the methodology they also change the past data to reflect new the methodology. It could be like the CPI inflation figures that historically had different methods but the data is still...

There is a $300b decline in the fiscal deficit from 2010 to 2011 http://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-10-year-budget-projections-august-2009-2010-6 Some of that could be made by increasing tax revenues(although IIRC revenues are still going down), still its going to be a fiscal shock...