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Still thinking the Fed will raise rates?The debate now should be whether the Fed will raise in 2012, because 2011 in my view is looking quite unlikely, more and more by the day

Thanks, my mom raised me well

Its 17x next year earnings. It looks like they agree with the estimates and the growth rate going forward

They found an edge

I have never read this information before and I'm surprised how this didnt leak out before the transcripts were released given the huge amount of people that go to these meetings. Maybe it got leaked and I was not aware but its the first time I read this

Found an interesting fact in the book In Fed We Trust. 7 out of the 18 people sitting on the FOMC table(voting or non-voting) did not agree with inserting 'considerable period' back in 2003 on the day that they did it(both Bernanke and Kohn were in favor). This didnt show up in the statement nor...

Fed Senior Survery shows large banks have started to ease credit standards on loans to large companies. Effects on M2 should be limited as large companies have access to capital markets and are probably ok in terms of their loan demands

The reason the risk reward is bad is because its obvious to the market what is going to happen, risk reward is an overrated trading concept, what matters is the EXPECTATION. I would happily sell naked options all day as a long I was quite confident my premiums we're too high and I'm properly...

One thing that I believe is misunderstood in the economics community is the issue of whether tax cuts pay for themselves. In the short-run I agree that they dont pay for themselves(despite of what supply-siders might claim) but in the long-run if a certain economy wide tax rate gets an economy...

Worst jobs recovery ever? http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=7933596&story_id=16805946 THe only two periods slightly better had a much lower UR and much less slack

I asked a former FOMC member and Fed president about the scenario I had written about(Fed might never implement any exit because its balance sheet is growing in a permanent basis due all the private delevering) He answered "Well, I think you are probably right, but having the Fed's balance...

Fed's Hoenig: Keeping Rates Too Low 'Dangerous Gamble' http://www.cnbc.com/id/38693128 He claims 1% fed funds is not tight policy, but that highly depends on where inflation is going, if he is right(and inflation bottomed and it will rise over the next year), yes its not tight policy, but...

Inflation just 'subdued' http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/US-Inflation/mcpi.cfm No reason to expect Fed action unless expectations or the economy tanks

"WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Brazil and the U.S. have reached a debt-reduction agreement that will let the South American nation commit funds for the protection of its tropical forests. The debt-for-nature agreement signed Thursday reduces Brazil's debt payments to the U.S. by nearly $21 million...

Jan 2011 ZQ had a high of 99.84

He bears some responsibility, but what if he prevented a deflationary japanese trap during the 2003-2004 cycle?Thats one thing he wont get credit for(because nobody sees crises that were prevented) but all that easy money might have just done the trick that prevented inflation expectations from...

Bubbles existed before the Fed was created. There was about a dozen housing bubbles through the world in the last years, that is because LONG-term interest rates were low, which central banks have limited control(even less in the last decade, check the correlation numbers)

He was referring to the M of the quantity theory of money equation. I dont see how the government deficit can affect that(negatively) given that the borrowed money is send back to the private sector through wages to public workers, contracts with private companies, transfer payments, etc He...

Rogoff responded to the Krugman criticism with a new paper http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5395 Krugman responded to that http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/11/reinhart-and-rogoff-are-confusing-me/ Yet failed to answer this "Put differently, our “high vulnerability”...

Goldman is back on gold betting on QE2 http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-goes-goo-goo-gold-gold-market-poised-rally-us-real-rates-head-lower I havent gone back to my full gold position because I'm still afraid of a decline in commodities and risk assets. I'm going to risk being...