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Whats your target for those bonds?Because I'm tired of seeing people get into debates about all the 'reasons' they have a trade on, then they take profits as soon as it moves in their favor claiming to be for 'technical reasons'

What is the % probability that you put on a double dip recession?

The ECRI leading index correlates with future manufacturing activity. Now philly fed is negative, apparently this is a 'surprise' to a lot of people, though I'm sure this will be followed by barry ritholz and the people that built the index saying everything is ok and the chances of a double dip...

Jobless claims hit 500K, private NFP might turn negative. Interesting, tons of people called for a 'slowdown but no recession'. This 'recovery' produced real final sales avg a little over 1%, NFP bellow 100K(though it was negative for a number of months). It doesnt take much of a slowdown to...

Didnt post the link http://pragcap.com/were-turning-japanese Dif between fed and boj. This is why I dont expect a japanese outcome in the US

The differences between the Fed and the BOJ

Hindenburg omen fooling people http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/8/18/know-your-indicators-hindenburg-omen.html

He wants to enjoy the money rather than be a slave of it

I see no indication that he would favor allowing the money supply to decline. He wants a modest increase in rates to prevent some kind of bubble. He doesnt criticize QE or the size of the balance sheet

Druckenmiller retires http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAxqmEZaonhc&pos=1

I dont believe the two objectives are at odds with each other. Lets say the Fed does nothing, delevering continues and M2 starts to decline by 5% a year. At that point prices and employment would start to drop(ala 30's), in order to prevent that, the Fed will almost surely start Q2 I dont...

I dont understand your criticism of Fed policy(specially if you did go to chicago uni), unless you think massive deflation when people has debt to their eyeballs is a good thing

Didnt you go to the uni of Chicago?They are doing the standard correct response that prevents a 30's type outcome, as people delever and paydown debt the money supply decreases, the fed HAS to lever up to prevent a 30's type M2 collapse. Otherwise we see massive deflation They purchased $1.7T...

Another reason the Fed might never exit from its current balance sheet. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703649004575436950880560936.html The new capital requirements will get the banks to cut down on loans in order to retain earnings and buildup capital The private M2...

Well, he is a Keynesian saying fiscal policy isnt the only game in town. That adds some credibility to his argument. Also he could have been a great economist if he didnt keep swinging between showing tons of rationality and intelligence with blindness and politically motivated excuse making

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9CEqhmU0Pg :p

Koo again http://www.economist.com/economics/by-invitation/guest-contributions/fed_should_ask_fiscal_policy_support He claims "The only way to keep money supply from shrinking is for the public sector to borrow money. Indeed the US money supply grew after 1933, following the worst balance...

Well, krugman agrees with my view that Koo is lost when it comes to monetary policy http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/notes-on-koo-wonkish/ he talks a lot about the interest rate effects but to me that is only secondary the biggest influence comes from the fact that by boosting...

Was he obligated to answer any of the FBI questions?If he was not, just goes to show that the greatest legal advice ever given was "always shut the fuck up"

High UR here to stay "1635 GMT [Dow Jones] Don't blame the Fed for the high unemployment rate, Minn. Fed president Kocherlakota seems to say in today's speech. He says a mismatch between workers and job skills is a main cause. "Firms have jobs, but can't find appropriate workers. The workers...