Search results

Tony robbins issues stock market warning :D http://business.tonyrobbins.com/78/an-important-note-of-caution/ Says 'major correction' is in the cards. I'm not so sure, I'd expect something like 900-950 SPX. Problem is even big bears like Bosenberg are calling for $75EPS(I believe that is...

Some data on Japan post-bubble collapse, money growth was quite weak http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/6549 "Defenders of the Bank of Japan will say, "How? The bank has already cut its discount rate to 0.5 percent. What more can it do to increase the quantity of...

What is your current macro view and bets to play on them right now?

Diversify in inflation linked government bonds of different countries. Yes you take FX risk but thats the cost of safety. All you eggs in the USD basket is too risky As far as return figures, it depends on inflation, but it should more or less keep the wealth constant or declining a bit every...

2y and Fed Futures continue to soar, it seems overbought but I dont know if I should take profits, its a hard call because the liquidity is poor so there are costs involved. I could short some more recent liquid contracts but the problem is what if the econ data continues to be bad and the...

You claim you have records of 18 years of profitable active trading? I wouldn't be surprised if pressed on this it turns out that they were 'gains including primary residence, passive retirement accounts, etc' In any event, you have to understand that anyone smarter than chimp having to...

Yes, I always wonder about this too. 18 consecutive years of profitability in active trading might be something like a 1 in 500K(maybe thats conservative) shot, compared to the probability of finding an snake oil salesman and its safe to say its not likely the man is not entirely honest. I...

Some people seem to be worried about Bernanke not leading the FOMC enough http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2010/08/a-call-for-transparency.html I believe they are incorrect and I refer to the book In Fed We Trust to show my point. In the day they dropped rates to 0-.25% Dec...

Here's the former fed member that seem to have agreed with my proposition that the Fed might never exit its balance sheet http://taxesandbudget-blog.ncpa.org/the-delta-blues/#comments "I infer that Milton Friedman’s view of the proper level of bank reserves, Fed assets, and the like, was...

I dont believe thats relevant. What matters is what happens on net, I would be shocked if the insurance industry were a net loser of money in the long-run, they probably make money, that money must be coming from somewhere and thats the clients. Yes, you might get lucky and get a net positive...

In theory renting is more expensive than buying because the landlord is essentially in the same position as a owner but also selling a service(all the costs of maintaining his property plus some kind of profit factor to compensate for his work). So the guy from the video is not correct when...

Of course he real reason Pellegrini is closing is because of high water marks. He will probably open a new fund soon

Its too late for the government, the guy could be arrested or killed tomorrow and the site will keep going

Pellegrini closing up http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arLj5GbzcDo4&pos=3 Must be short USTs, that -11% might be at Q2 end and the performance from then to today might have been hideous(though this is just a speculation)

Fed balance sheet still contracting, NY Fed will have to step up their purchases http://barrons.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442334&cust=barrons&year=2010#top

Also the Fed balance sheet contracted for 2 months before they pulled the plug at the last meeting and net credit growth was negative. I dont see why M2 would come back significantly given this unless the banks were swapping Fed reserves for USTs or GSE MBS on a net basis

Zerohedge has an article about how M2 growth is here. I believe that is misguided due the April plunge and May comeback giving the impression that growth is strong now happening. The less volatile yoy are still hovering around 2% http://img440.imageshack.us/i/36813808.gif/ And the lastest...

I'm looking at a RJI chart against GLD. I meant Jul, put Jun by mistake

Whats most amazing is that over the last few months, gold has rallied when commodities declined(May,August) significantly and sold off when commodities rallied(Jun) significantly I dont know how sustainable this trend is and how stable the new correlation is

I dont understand what is going on with gold. I liquidated a while back($1200 IIRC) 50% of my position(and swaped to other currencies to hedge USD exposure) It seems that people are sniffing out some QE and future inflation but at the same time, the 30y shouldn't be too happy with that and they...