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He is correct again http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/02/inflation-deflation-debt/ This where some free marketeers go wrong when they think deflation is not bad. There is a difference between 19th century deflation and 20th(or 21) century deflation and that difference is debt levels...

ECRI member now calling for 50% chance of recession http://pragcap.com/ecri-chance-of-recession-greater-than-50 Next will be barry ritholdz, when he comes out and says double dip is likely I bet the economy will be in recession already

Krugman is correct here http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/31/things-we-know-about-inflation-wonkish/ But I also believe the Fed is correct in publishing fantasy forecasts. If they told the truth they would create chaos and self-fulfilling prophecies

Soros doesnt trade for his fund anymore. His views can differ from his trader's views

Arent you in the camp that says dont short USTs?The author is agreeing with my position that because its Bernanke who is in charge and not the BOJ the US might be a difference experience

From the Reinhardt paper "Another important driver of the cycle is the leverage of the private sector. In the decade prior to a crisis, domestic credit/GDP climbs about 38 percent and external indebtedness soars. 5 Credit/GDP declines by an amount comparable to the surge (38 percent) after the...

Reading materials from Jackson Hole http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/08/geek_out_on_kc.html I look forward to read the Reinhardt, Christiano paper and the inflation after crisis

Banks will need more capital - Whitney http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHErG04P27YE&pos=5

Montier from GMO talks about an european trade on dividend derivatives http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gmos-james-montier-explains-why-shun-speculative-churn-and-burn-trading-and-focus-dividend-s I'm trying to find if this is available on IB to see if I should research this further. There...

Fairfax buying derivatives to bet on deflation http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704540904575451910642552160.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection If the odds were huge(50-1+) this could be a good bet but other than that its throwing money away. -2% CPI over the next 10years...

Roubini: 40% chance of double dip http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a0z0Uvraiscg

When I mentioned having a small stock market long I'm referring to a short-term technical long. I expect a bear market and SPX back to 900-950, if ES plunges some more here, I will increase the technical long even though I expect the bear to bottom out a little lower

I've been shorting more EURs lately too, against USD Yen and Franc(though if the defaults start I expect something to blow up in the swiss banking system). I lost some money on the rally(covered gradually) but I believe I will make it back I differ from the pundits on the target, some expect...

Could be fears that housing is going to hit the banks, given all the misses

GE getting dumped, ala EU crisis

Just covered 100% of my homebuilders short. Really dismal news and its up 1% against a declining somewhat oversold market. Might re-short if it rallies back to $15+

I have never seen the last avaliable ZQ contract(currently, Jul 2012) with 50 contracts of liquidity in each side plus only a 2bps bid ask spread. Seems unprecedented to me

I took advantage of the liquidity to liquidate a little less than 50% of my position. Will keep the rest, going to buy again when the front end and USTs correct

Wtf, liquidity just gushed to fed futures. 50 contracts bid asks well deep into 2012. Contrarian indicator maybe

Another reason people got fooled was that during the 2003-2007 period earnings did well but they should have done even better, profits were coming so fast companies did not got rid of the so called 'corporate fat'(inefficiencies and unnecessary costs). That was reveled during the green shoot...