Search results

What is the evidence(if any) that the Chinese economy will slowdown significantly in the near-term(12 months)?

I dont see the difference either. Apparently AEP is on the inflation target camp but his target is higher than but close to 0% while the Fed is on lower than but close to 2%. I'm yet why his approach would be better given that every recession would come with the threat of debt deflation(his...

I'm not sure what is going on with him. He seems to be rambling against inflation targeting, yet there was simply no indication of any kind from the Fed in the last 12 months that they had given up an implicit inflation target of 2%. Now the Fed will defend the 1% or lower core CPI with QE and...

Well, I bought some SPY Nov 2010 99.00 puts(0.66 avg price) Playing 2 themes here -The buy vol around bellow VIX 20 in the aftermath of the crisis -Hussman research indicates economic misses will occur around mid Oct

Why not buy SPY puts instead. It seems to me that the stock market is more inefficient

Yeah, it seems the their audience only love when they bash for the zillioneth time on Bernanke or GS. I like it when they publish good private research like that

Buiter on EU defaults http://www.zerohedge.com/article/buiter-%E2%80%9Cunnecessary-undesirable-and-unlikely%E2%80%9D-sovereign-defaults-and-imfs-triumph-dogma-over His bottom line there is that the result of austerity actually increases the incentive to default because it increases the...

It seems that people estimate that there are 7m additional foreclosures down the pipe in terms of shadow inventories. If the avg price is $200,000(this is just a guess). There is $1.4T in money supply that will be turned over to the banks at the foreclosure auction. Now that number is not...

Some charts on BOJ, Fed and ECB http://pragcap.com/konichiwa I disagree with the article specially seeing the BOJ balance sheet after their bubble burst, those guys did nothing but cut rates for years. The Fed ballooned the balance sheet right away and is set to do that more. Chart 18...

Running some quick math on this articles numbers http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqEbsj68x7P4&pos=1 It appears that the banks drained $17b(foreclosures * median home price) in future M2 by foreclosure action in August. This would be about $200b annually, which is about...

The key part there is 'educated guess', the optimal F doesnt leave you much room to be incorrect(by definition) and you are broke. Plus there is all the fat tails and things like that

Inflation expectations

Clarium almost done http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiels-clarium-assets-under-management-2010-9

Very good piece by Hatzius, makes a good case fed will QE in november http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-dissects-feds-statement-expects-qe2-announcement-midterm-election-day

Optimal F will get you broke in the long-run

I'm thinking of doing the same thing. Buying volatility on this dip, I explained a while back that this might be a recurring macro theme to trade, I believe high volatility is here to stay even though the market will calm down every once and a while due debt levels

Inflation barely changed from the previous meeting(core CPI at 0.9%). the alternative measures from the Cleveland Fed barely changed, the Core PCE last figure is from July. They must be looking at inflation expectations instead of the figures. Which brings up a point I made a while ago...

Statement was more dovish than expected. Essentially they are saying inflation is too low, which is leading people into the QE trade like mad. I wont be buying the contracts at this point. 20bps of upside seems a little too low But on the other hand the Hussman research indicates economic...

I have been impressed by the quality of this blog lately http://www.themoneyillusion.com/ The guy who writes is quite knowledgeable when it comes to Fed policy. Just ignore the political bickering he does every once and a while

It seems that some people are expecting QE today, front end could sell off after the FOMC. I dont think the Fed will give much other than a change in the outlook. As a result I might buy some more Fed Futures to get back to my original size