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I found some data on the BTC futures premium https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-december-futures-reach-73-500-is-everyone-flipping-ultra-bullish It looks to me that 10-30% is a resonable level, above 40% corrections tended to occur. Max is 49.1% but at the highs of a buying frenzy, I wouldn't...

Sorry I meant the Complexity book, maybe I buy his own when I'm finished

Uni has already delivered twice, there is not reason to think they wont deliver again. Especially when the theoritical framework that they are using (Optimism) has been developed for so long On the issue of fees, another way to look at it is that this is a sign of great product market fit. The...

Those APYs are phony because they dont take into account that you are being paid by inflation. Correct if I'm wrong but the daily issuance is 750K CAKE a day. That's 270M CAKE a year! (with 157M CAKE being outstanding). This is very similar to stocks that pay dividends not in cash but by issuing...

I asked about his fund on PMs in 2003. Here is the answer (I deleted the question at the top because he didnt put quotes and it just looked like my question was his answer) lmao. Now he has a newsletter? you cant make this shit up

So Pancakeswap is this uniswap copy on the Binance Smart Chain, which is a centralized copy of Ethereum. I want to ask the Pancakeswap fans out there, especially @johnarb. How do you justify staying on this investment when: -Uniswap V3 is coming out, which will lower fees dramatically -Uniswap...

I'm building a little timing model for BTC (and crypto by extension) using a variety of different factors. Here is what it includes: Crypto Timing Model: -Price action/Trend -Sentiment -On-chain indicators -Futures markets -Gut feel And the signals of each one range from Green to Yellow to...

No but you need to know what a car is and how useful it is before you can call it worthless. I wont post the answer, you need to study the inner workings of BTC. Here is where you will find the answers about how BTC works https://oiipdf.com/download/1956 Also, buy the physical copy as it is more...

Substitute Argentina for the United States in the 1970s and the point remains. High rates dont mean that money is tight, lots of times it actually is a sign that money was loose

People will withdraw their cash from banks and hoard it to avoid negative rates

If you dont understand the most basic things about BTC, like layer 2s. Why do you feel qualified to comment on its value and whether it is a good investment?

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/interest-rate Argentina has a 38% central bank rate, it also has 42.8% inflation and that is expected to rise further. Meanwhile Japan has -0.1% central bank rates, it also havent had significant inflation in 30 years. The level of rates dont tell you the...

Yes, its a possibility to use the futures to lock a sale price for BTC. Especially because when this market goes insane, the blocks will be fought for tooth and nail. I wouldn't be surprised to see $200 average fees, maybe more. We already reached 2017 peak fee levels today and things haven't...

If he suceeds, Galaxy can become such a powerhouse. They would be the Berkshire Hathaway of crypto, buying up great firms and building a great portfolio of crypto assets by issuing stock. They could become that $100B company I mentioned before. He is invested in over 50 companies (including...

https://www.coindesk.com/mike-novogratzs-galaxy-digital-said-to-be-in-talks-to-buy-crypto-custodian-bitgo Novo trying to buy Bitgo, holy cow

I dont expect to continiously make money on this trade. But rather, to make a bundle and move on. I might even choose a further out contract to really lock some good rates to be short if. But yeah, once the collapse happens, the premiums are probably gone for a year or two

Well, but thats a good thing. Because I will put on these trades (with real size) BEFORE the bear market. So I will profit from the switch of big premiums to no premiums. I'm sure at the top or close to it the premium will be huge, thats when I will be short it. In fact, it will be one of my...

I just setup a BTC and ETH futures arb trade on Kraken, Binance and FTX. Its not with significant size, I'm just trying to understand it better, get familiar with their platforms, margin requirements and liquidation policies My idea here is this: Once I get neutral to bearish crypto (not now...

https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/360022631692 https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/360022835971 Anyone joined this? This seems similar to selling options. If Kraken is filling the liquidity providers at good enough fills (far away from the market), then it could make sense...

I would suggest you pick up the book Mastering Bitcoin to actually understand how 'control' works in Bitcoin. It has nothing to do with balances