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  1. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    or fastest money printing operation
  2. K

    ES will drop 200 pts

    terror attacks lately result in substantially higher prices
  3. K

    Coping with a bad week...

    it's quite simple you shouldn't depend on short term trading - you should have money at least for several years and those money should be not in your trading account so if it's not an issue you will be just sad you lost money for which you could buy a car or whatever sadness will depend on...
  4. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    the question is why there are so fixated on this? It's clear to everybody markets are not free now so they don't perform their initial function On the other hand intended wealth effect also doesn't work as Bernanke envisioned it So wise thing would be slowly withdraw from manipulation but...
  5. K

    How exactly does negative interest on government bonds work?

    why not to short 2 yr bond instead of buying? In this case you will get 0.25-0.19 and net gain 0.04%
  6. K

    How exactly does negative interest on government bonds work?

    F Fed can just sell $4.5 trln they have and have 10Y jump to 10% if they want
  7. K

    How exactly does negative interest on government bonds work?

    Fed bought $4.5 trln it's all artificial real demand Spain and Italy before Draghi which was 7% on 10Y
  8. K

    How exactly does negative interest on government bonds work?

    Previously If I bought $1000 in 10y bond and interest was 1% every year I was paid $10 Now if interest rate -1% does that mean I need to pay to the government $10 every year to some special account? What will happen if I don't pay? Does that mean I defaulted on Government bond?
  9. K

    opec cuts?

    cuts won't get them anywhere shale is supereffective. any OPEC cuts will be substituted by shale within months OPEC and Russia must get used to sub 40 oil forever
  10. K

    opec cuts?

    why to cut exactly? to give market share to US shale? so previous 18 months were for nothing? they still won't get their $100 price maybe 60 if very luck and still probably very short term
  11. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    overall as I understand it should be net negative midterm on such days I always remember Jan3, 2001 when Fed cut rates unexpectedly - Nasdaq was up 7%. you know what happened next dollar is up so multinational loose again significantly increase risk of Chinese devaluation and I don't know what...
  12. K

    Japan is winning the currency war

    it's just part of the story 5-15% more for veggies that's probably just $50 a month or less poor will get additional transfers and middle class sitting on huge housing gains people in big cities got their lifetime wages or more in 10 years in housing equity those lucky who bought 2 or 3 houses...
  13. K

    Japan is winning the currency war

    this is true they want the economy to grow so they definitely want more supply the trick is to get demand for all this supply so high so inflation reach at least 2%
  14. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    did you see what happened in August? resilient market, resilient market - oops -10% a week later market recovered only when odds for September hike was zero leverage is huge. I don't think how market can pretend anything - market needs zero interest rates. zero rates are priced in for the next...
  15. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    this time was quite hawkish I don't know why you complain market will tank like it tanked after Yellen hawkish speech in September must be easy and fast 100-150 points down Rickshaw man will disappear again for 2 months;)
  16. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    from what we saw in the last 3 months today price action doesn't make sense at all market teaches the Fed aggressively not to hike and this time should be the same the question is only when it starts the definitely should've hiked today I shorted ES at the close wtih initial price target 1950...
  17. K

    Who is believing in the current monetary policy is still the right course and why?

    I can't find the paper right now. But it exists and and saw it many times and it comes from the Federal Reserve. This paper says that each dollar increase in asset prices results in 4 cents spending S definitely Fed doesn't agree with Maverick and thinks ssset inflation increases spending
  18. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    fundamentally there is no bull case in stocks anymore Fed lost any credibilty this is why gold surging probably much safer than stocks now
  19. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    you 're probably still down at least 5% buying the deep from 2100 millions of amateurs are in the same situation basically the same pattern what happened to china in July everything above 2000 will be dumped heavily by those deep buyers trying to break even
  20. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    Fed never disappoints markets
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