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  1. K

    The Trade War Hits China Where It Hurts

    Going off gold standard in 70s and substantially devaluing in 30s In my opinion both cases are defaults
  2. K

    For First Time Ever, Mortgage Bonds Being Sold At Negative Rate

    It's kind of totally different - there is no deflation fear- there is a hyperinflation fear, hyperinflation of assets fear that central bank will come an bid those into even deeper negative rate, so buy now before you can
  3. K

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    I'm totally positive they will cut 0.5% I don't have stats but I watched those rate cuts and telegraphing of rate cuts since Greenspan unexpectedly cut on January 2001 when Nasdaq was 7 or 8% up on a day and then those Bernanke cuts and Qe announcement etc. It always take at least a day of...
  4. K

    How Costco gained a cult following — by breaking every rule of retail

    If you convert to Muslim before death you don't even need a coffin and save even more without Costco
  5. K

    Thoughts on tonight's G20 meeting?

    you're such a clown this is study from your beloved Fed educate yourself , please https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2018-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201905.pdf
  6. K

    Thoughts on tonight's G20 meeting?

    Establishment hates Trump and Fed is part of the establishment. I seriously doubt Fed will prop up the market to improve Trumps chances. By the way Fed propping up the market for 10 years already. Still half of the population doesn't have $500 spare cash. Market propping doesn't spill to...
  7. K

    Thoughts on tonight's G20 meeting?

    Trump thinks he needs market to be propped up in fact half of population doesn't have $500 spare cash I doubt they vote based on stock market 1% is not enough
  8. K

    Shorting 2 year german bond

    question to bond traders current rate -0.67% if I sell 1000 bond outright I understand margin is 60 euro b and for bond held for maturity I understand the return is guaranteed 6.7 euro so basically more than 10% guaranteed did I miss something? why not everybody in this trade then yet? I'm...
  9. K

    The US tariffs on China have been paid almost entirely by US importers: IMF study

    you're totally brainwashed - 1 year old car cheaper than new by 20%. this is a deflation those who need or want new car don't care about 3% in a year as they primed to lose 20% anyway
  10. K

    The US tariffs on China have been paid almost entirely by US importers: IMF study

    mild deflation is not bad. technology operates in deflation for the last 200 years and it doesn't prevent investment deflation is bad when you have excessive debt against assets- this is why Fed targets asset prices and it's bad not because it's bad for the economy but because fed cronies loose...
  11. K

    New China Tariffs Increase Costs to U.S. Households

    look at inflation - it's dead now and prey tariffs really increase prices or the Fed will get to job soon printing more trillions
  12. K

    The US tariffs on China have been paid almost entirely by US importers: IMF study

    It's kind of stupid to say tariffs are bad Inflation is good according to the FED and they do whatever it takes to get it - by printing money they printed trillions to get inflation, made some small number of people insanely rich and robbed elders with low interest Fed wants higher inflation -...
  13. K

    Huawei Ban

    the thing is american software and hardware have backdoors and US agencies spy everybody including US president now if i'm US company - is it better for me to be spied by US government or China government? what about ordinary person? as a person I would say Chinese spying is safer for me
  14. K

    What's Holding This Market Up?

    I don't know about corporate cash but I know corporate debt is at all time high, and budget deficit is at all time high when not in recession and growing higher, and US would be in recession if not government deficit and all that debt needs buyers and that 5% yield is a mirage as you see it only...
  15. K

    Does Apple have an import breakdown from China on their 10k?

    their US sales more than 100 billion, but I'm not sure tariffs are based on retail price
  16. K

    AMD pummeled any hope?

    basically it feels you lost ton of money not on hardware but on shorting AMD their CPUs are ok and were always OK as long as I remember. And I use AMD CPUs since 1995
  17. K

    AMD pummeled any hope?

    do you know how many people hate apple or microsoft or amazon? i smell you're short from 2 or 3 but your attitude show you're immature trader when you trade you never hate and never love
  18. K

    Tax cuts and buy backs

    I was thinking about it lately I understand nominal GDP grows around 5% a year What I see S&P growth is around 16% compounded in the last 10 years. Or somewhere 14% inflation adjusted I honestly don't know how it could be sustainable - yes buybacks, tax cuts, public companies get bigger slices...
  19. K

    Interactive Brokers insisting on spiked Fx price

    I remember about year or 2 ago USDZAR spiked around 10% in a matter of seconds. Of course I was short. Luckily it went back in the next several minutes. I never had a thought to blame IB. Just don't trade ZAR anymore
  20. K

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    you don't need to hear anything - just look at AMZN chart. their rate appreciation in the last 3 years close to bitcoin and market cap 5 times bigger it may go up 5 fold from here again but I wouldn't touch it no matter what
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