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If expectation is that we go below 1100 and take out the lows in ES, two interesting spreads might be long gold-silver (GoC's original idea), or even better long gold-copper.

+1000000000000 hope these many zeros will drive home this very very important point!

exactly. Just a caution though - one trade being right or wrong proves nothing. The theory that you are building should have a sound basis in either statistical analysis or at least reasoning. I will buy a sound theory about a particular trading setup (in this case about placement of stops)...

fair enough...actually statistically you are correct. However, i think we go down significantly lower - like 30-45 in asia hours and beginning european trading and then start retrace up, after some european trading has taken place. Edit: I cant really explain why i think so - but i do...

this thing doesnt work in ES, apart from probably 50%.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/6494/snb-yet-be-tested-morgan-stanley Not sure if this will happen so fast! But now, after this week's bund auction and reading MS, this makes me think if buying some 1.10 puts on eurchf expiring in june 2012, is such a bad bet, better if i can buy them when...

do you have a valid reason why you want to be long here? I am at loss to understand, so asking. thanks

wow....thats interesting it seems its a new pattern to break the lows at 4 o clock sharp :cool: :D

its small just 6.0, to be ignored by Japanese standards !

in my experience, sometimes ES folllows it sometimes its eur that follows ES. This late in ny trading, i would say its eur that is following ES....and this 2nd attempt at LOD - 1 tick was just flushing out stop. Now, if that is correct, we should go higher from here for atleat 3-4 points.

out at 63, it didn't break as i was expecting.

short 63.25, stop 66, target 58....now, i seriously hope that i am not overtrading----i thought for some time before putting in this trade; it seeems to me that we are going to break LOD. So one last bet. Edit: Alright, we did break it, but bouncing back now.......I really dont know how to...

Covered at 65, realized was too early....short again at 64.25, finally covered at 62.25. We might go down much, but I wanted to book profits above LOD.

ES going down, AUD going down, Euro going down, ES DOM skew -2k.....i say we break this support and go to atleast 1161.5 Edit: We did broke the support

imp: we are running into euro day's low and ES swing low...will they act as support temporarily at least ??:confused: I think - we might bounce off once,but should break them on 2nd attempt.

Well the reason why i reversed from long to short was that even though ES was back, but euro had stayed below. Correlations!

turned out i was wrong. we ran into resistance at triple top!! Out from this trade for a tick loss, now reversed. Edit: Short at 1167.25, stop 1167(now as price has moved down).....LF will tell me where should be my target :) since it seems we are crashing!

Thanks for the tip. Appreciated. but i wont give it all back today, even if i lose this one. Did we just run into a triple top, or we are going to break it convincingly on 4th try ?:confused:

re-entered long at 68, target 74.5, stop 62.5....this time will try hard not to close the trade on slightest pullback....price is showing sufficient support...i am 80% positive we are going higher.

Agreed, old habits die hard. But on a positive note, the improvement that i have done is that I have cut down the number of trades per day to between 0 and 2, earlier used to do like 20 scalps (entries and exits). so at least being very selective. Today made some money trading euro, so taking...