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covered at 52, clean trade :)

short 59

Another way to look at it is people are getting discouraged and are dropping out of 'employment seeking' category....thereby reducing the unemployment rate. So this could be the other side.

Thank you! Yes, its definitely risk-on for now.....will be interesting to see what happens if we get a good number in NFP. I have a feeling today might be a classic case of buy the rumor sell the facts. It might be a good trade to leave a short order around 70-75 on ES, with the hope that...

If you are asking me, then no I don't think this rally in last week had anything to do with NFP. My experience show NFP number is reflected only by Thursday's and early Friday's price action and not before that. :) Btw, whats your source of Big Bang! Want to give some more color ...

posted this idea in another forum, but let me post it here also if anyone wants to run away with the idea. Do it at your own risk though :) For trading today's NFP, a hedged trade would be to buy 100,000 usdjpy and sell 1 ES contract. Current prices: USDJPY 78.00, ES 1157. Case 1: If NFP...

Hello Everyone, I discovered this thread 4 days back and have been reading it daily since. This seems like a very fine thread to me. I don't know anything about the ACD method, but some of the other ideas I read about like looking at spreads (XLF-SPY) sound very interesting. Let me start...

Thank you very much for explaining. What is tweezer tips candle btw, I didn't quite follow that. Thanks again

Looks like we formed a little double top, but price still above 20 EMA - so hard to say.

can you explain why at that point you thought things were close to take a turn to bullside.....and now why you saying day is for shorts and lets resume selling ? Thanks.

Interesting. May I ask what technique you are using : Linear regression, Multiple regression or some other technique, NNs ? and how much data have you built this model on ? how much forward test ? what % accuracy in forward test/real time? Alright, I am asking above because without knowing...

That was a good one...inspiring!!

well said, however improbable this possibility should never be ignored. There might be some joint eurobond announcement tomorrow and if that happens, we will see ES at 1180 tomorrow itself. I guess one way to take and hold swing trades on ES fading psychological extremes is to establish a...

this late day move is obviously due to all those ETFs and leveraged ETFs re-balancing related....now it is getting very clear to me. So, i guess you don't have to worry too much. Come tomorrow, and you should be good! See euro is just not responding, even aud is responding very less to this...

I think its a very sensible call, but might not hurt to hold a bit if it goes against you.

Posted it in another forum also but I think this might be helpful for ES traders more directly. Just went through couple of surprise rate cuts, with market's response some days before and after the event. Two different years, different cases, different conclusions as to how market reacted...

Just went through couple of surprise rate cuts, with market's response some days before and after the event. Two different years, different cases, different conclusions as to how market reacted after the surprise rate cut. In 2008, market continued to go up for a week post rate cut and then...

My loss does count indeed, but in my eyes the pattern in this instance doesn't count. I think we will have to agree to disagree on this point. Peace !

On a different note, I think the actions today by Fed and others has clearly demonstrated once again that we are in the low rates regime for a very extended period :) The obvious (longer term) trade is long risk assets, long gold should be the safest, as it also shows Fed and others...

Chinese reserve ratio cut then.