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    How do you calculate risk/reward and probability?

    What you need to do is backtest your strategies to see if it is a positive or negative expectation. Use the expectation formula. That is how you determine your edge. Each trade is different and even the best setups can and will fail. Add risk management to minimize the chances of blowing up your...
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    Gold

    Watching UNG and CS. Both are headed down. However, both are near the bottom. It may take a week, 2 weeks or longer for these stocks to breakout and go much higher but, there is no hurry. One of these trading gems just waiting for you to pick it up when the time comes. We are not willy nilly...
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    Gold

    Do have a position on GLD. It is my best performing ETF or stock for that matter. When I saw it, it had already moved. Huge volume spike. broke out of a trading range, wide ranging green candlesticks. All telling me to buy. I bought in the very next day. There are multiple stocks that could have...
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    Second account blown and conditioned to lose

    Whether you succeed or fail depends on you. Only you can determine your fate as a trader. Most of the top traders blew up accounts and lost huge sums before they figured out how to trade stocks and make lots of monies.
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    Second account blown and conditioned to lose

    That is approximately, the return of most successful hedge funds which is around 20% any given year. Of course, if you can put those numbers up on a consistent basis, even 1 or 2 years you are negative is offset when the returns are more than the average. Warren Buffet did not grow rich...
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    Second account blown and conditioned to lose

    There is probably, a huge number of day traders who have failed than those few who have succeeded. The time factor is short, the pressure of daily making monies and not making mistakes is probably, too high a bar for most traders. Swing Trading and Trend Following gives traders a better chance...
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    Second account blown and conditioned to lose

    One of the most important things for traders in the stockmarket is to have a positive expectation on your trading system. If not, you are just gambling like those in Las Vegas. The gamblers in Las Vegas get free rooms, free food, perks. If you lose your monies on Wall Street, making negative...
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    Ridin' with Biden

    With wide open borders under the Biden Administration, it is like a welcome mat for all enemies of the US. And the US has a very poor record of responding to warnings from US citizens as well as other countries. The flight school notified authorities. Russia warned the US about the Tsarnaev...
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    Which bank stocks are you buying?

    Okay. Then, ignore my remarks. It was on CS.
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    Second account blown and conditioned to lose

    A lot of stock traders come into the stockmarket, dream of making millions but, do not do what is needed to succeed. You need knowledge of the risks involved (risk management), a record of your trades (trading log), adequate capital, maybe $3,000-$5,000 to start, to develop a trading plan and a...
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    Which bank stocks are you buying?

    I am only assuming this question is directed to me. Are you talking about a buy stop limit? I would continue to track the lower highs and see where the price action takes it out. Once, the price takes out the most recent lower high, I am going to take a position. Of course, with a stop loss...
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    Presenting The HOLY GRAIL

    Just look in the mirror. Standing in front of you is your enemy and nemesis. He has beaten you 100 times out of 100. Care to try for 101? There, I saved you 20 years of your life. And you are welcome.
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    Which bank stocks are you buying?

    The Swiss Central Bank just bailed out CS to the tune of $54 billion so, they are pretty safe. I will keep it on my watch list until the downtrend ends. I do not mind paying a bit more if that is the case or taking it at a much lower price either.
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    SIVB/SBNY Option exercise problems

    Chances are good, the put buyer will just sell their options back to close their position, why would they exercise it? Of course, if they had SIVB stock, they would exercise it. There is always that risk and preferably, you have funds to cover the exercise. No, I do not have positions in SIVB...
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    Which bank stocks are you buying?

    They just bailed out CS and it is at the very low already. Downside is limited. Now, $1.95 total downside is $1.95. That is on a worst case scenario. Still, I will hold off. I will buy when it starts to go back up. There is no hurry. CS could go all the way down to $0.50 before it goes back up...
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    It’s hard to understate how poor Trump’s Iran policy is going

    Just like Cuddles4BS. Canadians have revealed themselves to be such BS artists and nothing more. Funny, how these fools get involved in US politics all the while, Justin Trudeau is taking away their rights? One day, they will wake up to find all their rights gone but, it will be President Donald...
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    Which bank stocks are you buying?

    Bank stocks are headed down. Ever hear of catching a falling knife? Follow the trends, you will be better off as a trader or investor as the case maybe. Fighting the tape, is not the smartest thing to do! All you will have is losses upon losses. Short stocks but, do not borrow the shares as your...
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    Kari Lake -- Not a brain cell to be found

    Funny, a copy and paste artist complains about others being dumb? GWB cannot debate the issues and when he does, he is embarrassed time and time again! Maybe, you should look at yourself in the mirror. You are no Einstein! Not even close. You ET trolls are the dumbest idiots around. Even when...
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    Citigroup Inc. will going bankrupt up to a few days!

    The fix to this inadequate insurance for deposits is to require banks to have their hard assets like real estate, mortgages held by Americans as collateral. Banks should not be allowed to accept deposits more than 50% of their hard assets. That would ensure all deposits are guaranteed their...
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    Citigroup Inc. will going bankrupt up to a few days!

    None of the banks with strong political connections will be allowed to fail. We already saw that in the TARP bailouts where the biggest banks got bailouts. Citigroup was one of them. Silicone Valley Bank with Hollywood celebrities and woke companies having their monies in it, would not be...
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