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i think this will become a good short if it gaps past 30 this week. The next explosion will be the fda approval which is still months away. With such a huge gap up and no news for a while, it will sell off again.

1) Look at your open position everyday as if you are about to make that new trade, if you wont make that new trade, then close your position. Question, will you write a call/put that has only $0.15 premium with 2 weeks left? If the answer is yes, then leave it open, otherwise close it. 2)...

no of course not, he sold it in that 10 sec right before the halt, at the lowest possible point on the graph, and made HUGE profits. now everyone go read his blog and be awed by the awesomeness that is riskfreetrading

lol

this is retarded, you want to sell otm puts to pick up some pennies, and you want us to tell you a magic way to protect against blackswan. talk to madoff, maybe he has some ideas.

still holding some naked short 30C on dndn, the premium was just too good. But it's making me very nervous, i am closing it first thing monday morning, before the madness on tuesday begins. God knows what will happen on tuesday, i predict complete chaos.

I made a typo: "sell the front month buy the furthest month" should be "buy the front month and sell the furthest month" If you dont overleverage, how is this the same as selling cds during bankruptcy? 1) You have a blackswan event, vix spikes 2) Once the vix reachs certain level you...

thanks for the explanation, a safer trade would be to do an atm calendar spread, sell the front month buy the furthest month when vix spikes. Since when vix spikes there is a blackswan event happening, that way you are protected against the current event as even if vix spikes again tomorrow...

IB-AN, You seriously do not see this as pure lunacy? 1)Your company and the trade workstation heavy client gui are both focused on active/quick trading by providing all info in one view. 2)In that gui, you have a "Shortable" column which is color coded to indicate whether or not the...

port1385 is a genius, he posts some pointless crap to attract attention, and sure enough all the idiots flock to his threads and start replying. I guess in this case, myself included :eek:

dmo, just to summarize: 1)vix options is based off futures as the underlying. 2) futures will vary from cash quite a bit but always converges at expiration. based on this, wouldnt it be a very good trade to short the furthest month atm calls during those times when vix spiked above 60+...

You are a fucking idiot and not worth my time anymore

shorting both faz and fas at the same time is pure lunacy. jprad, i dont know why you keep countering this, just fade away from this thread dude. Theory: Faz at 100 Fas at 100 For the next 20 days, each day the underlying raises 1%. Day1: Faz: 100-3(3%)=97 Fas: 100+3(3%)=103...

You are long vega, short theta, and gamma gets a little tricky due to the pair behavior of the 2, need to compare them for the diff. faz at 11.63, fas at 6.56. Max loss is $2.4+commission, at most only one of the two will be winners. Looking at expiration, needs a move of ~50+% to be...

why only solar? all the hybrid / electrical cars + wind energy is not heavily solar based. My green play is pbw, have been gradually adding to it in my ira. This is a 5-10 year horizon play.

japan is a tiny island with little to no production/resource/manufacturing. It's heavily dependent on high tech and services. China is a completely different story. So the answer is no. A more similar comparison would be china to the 1800s industrial revolution era US.

jw, is es mini sp500 cash settled always? if you are short 1x itm april call option on the june contract. Upon expiration, will you have short 1x june contract or does IB just deduct money directly from your account to settle the assignment and you end up with no positions. thanks

i know this is a pharma stock, but the iv on it is insane currently. What do you guys think about making a play on this: stock: $18 atm: may 19C+17.5P nets close to $7!!! that's a breakeven at 40% move!! otm: may 30C + 11P nets close to $2 breakeven at 70% and 50% on either side.

I think it's fine if you believe bac will continue to move up. You are basically not taking the current month call premium and instead trying to profit on the underlying move. However this only makes sense if the price is close to the strike not DITM, if for example bac moves up to 15, you...

Ah your basis was the put/call IV is equal. Got it, thanks for the explanation. I think this is very similar to the SHLD situation where IB had fun with the borrowing rates, the only difference is there wasnt a pending bankruptcy. Since gm is almost a binary play, this might still work...