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If you got a poll with 60% Republicans I would question the randomness of your distribution lol. There could be less obvious biases you’re not accounting for if you did an econometric breakdown of the data. Hence the weighting wouldn’t necessarily adjust to a representative sample.

Trafalgar asks people who they think the people they know are voting for as part of their methodology. They overestimated the support for Trump by a little last time. They called Trump winning in MI and PA when nobody else had. I think there might be a bias effecting their polling in places like...

The polls are showing a bigger lead for Biden than Clinton though, not the other way around. Hence nobody thinks Biden will lose states Hillary won close races in like NH, MN, NV, and ME.

What's interesting to me is that last time polls showed Trump and Clinton further apart in WI, MI, and PA than the national average. Clinton was winning in those 3 states by like 2 points more than she was nationally. This time around they're showing the national average doing a few points...

The point I'm making is that it wouldn't take much movement in the national polls to make up those gaps. PA, MI, and WI would really need to break trend to stick with Trump if Biden is +4 on election night. Especially since the Dems are more heavily investing in those states this time around.

Compare that chart to 2020 where Biden has had a consistent lead, especially since June: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html Notice how much more volatile 2016 was. You saw Trump sometimes catching Clinton. Biden has held steady...

The point is the margins right now are larger for Biden than they were for Clinton in the polls. Things have 4 weeks to change. They've been very consistent this year though.

He only lost by 2 points in the popular vote last time. Think about the margins he won by in PA (.72%), MI (.23%), and WI (.77%). Do you really think he can lose by 2-3 more points nationally without surrendering those state margins? The polls in those states aren't showing that. There's a lot...

The RCP average would need to be off by at least 5 points right now in Trump's favor for him to have a chance of winning.

Yeah, the backup plan should obviously be to automatically keep Trump in office if they find a single extra vote for Biden.

If the primaries are any indication, expect record turnouts due to the ease of voting by mail. This is not good for Republicans who always try to suppress the vote in order to win.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-campaign-discussing-plans-appoint-090001571.html This would certainly be unprecedented in modern times. Even with all the rhetoric, this has to be too low for Republicans. If this were done many people are going to turn violent. I mean, you can't make the ending of...

I doubt it's actually going to be +16 on election day, but CNN polls were Clinton +5 this time 4 years ago.

Guess you felt they needed more company...

Curious, are you part of the incel community?

I have yet to take a shit today. Just figured I'd say something to get in on this high quality discussion.

No doubt Trump’s leadership will keep us safe from the virus. The virus is almost over!

I think it’s a benefit to the country that he got it. He’s been playing it down this whole time and who knows how many lives we’ve lost as a result. Maybe the country will start taking it more seriously if he dies from it and more Americans can live as a result.

People who say BLM is racist usually don’t care about the racial injustices in society. BLM doesn’t mean only black lives matter. It’s pointing out that black people are disproportionately mistreated by the police and our criminal justice system. Any recognition that there are still black people...

True he’s old, obese, male, and based on his tax returns in a low income group.