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I'm honestly shocked that the Trumpers on here are claiming fraud. Based on the daily posts I see on here, I expected them to accept the votes graciously.

But isn't Trump winning the Independent vote?

The biggest surprise so far in this election is Susan Collins, but ME does ranked choice and they haven't called it yet so I don't really know what's going on there. However, her margin over Trump is substantial.

These really could end up +4% for Biden. Trump won't be able to steal that. He's down by like 10% right now. The math is very complicated.

It's mail ins from cities. When I went to bed last night it was Trump +4 in WI with 91% in. This should get heavier for Biden. Biden is now +2.0% in WI and +.6% in MI. The 9% remaining in MI is very blue. Biden could win it by 4 points.

I think best case scenario for Trump is 270-268 Biden at this point which would be quite the landslide victory.

I don't know what the rules are, but Biden is probably going to win them by 2%+. I'm assuming Biden is going to run it up in Clark Co and Wayne Co. I dunno where the missing vote is in WI, but I assume it's mail in?

Yeah, if NV, MI, and WI are with Biden it's over. Give Trump PA, GA, and NC, it doesn't matter. Biden can very well win with 270. That NE-2 could be huge.

I admit I was premature calling this mostly based on the vote I was seeing in OH which really flipped to Trump later. Shouldn't have said bet the house. That's poor risk management, but I never felt like Trump was going to win. However, I did lose my confidence in my bet the house prediction...

She can't do a lot with a Republican Senate. I think she campaigned more to the left than she really is though. I would not put her with Bernie/Warren. I think she's more persuadable to the center.

Well, Harris definitely would have lost if she was on the top of the ticket. If you want proof that progressives can't win, look at NE-2. They split the ticket. Biden's going to win that easily. They ran a progressive in that district and she's losing by 4.

Betting markets heavy on Biden now. His odds in MI and WI are like 93%. Assuming Biden holds NV that's the ballgame.

I think Biden will win MI by 2-3 points, not the 7+ expected. Wayne County (which has Detroit) is only reporting 64% of the vote.

I mean even if Biden wins Trump is taking this to court.

This looks like the most likely outcome. I'm thinking these missing ballots are mail ins which is advantage Biden. The polls still fucking suck though. They were consistently off by 4-5 points except in AZ.

This was a premature call on my part. The numbers got tighter in NC and OH from my OP. Whether Biden wins or not, the polls absolutely suck. OH is currently at the same margin it was at in 2016. I may or may not lose money, but oh well. NV, PA, MI, and WI are all in play right now. The GOP is...

You realize that the early vote is undercounted right now right? I'm going to bed, but I'm sure tomorrow will be fun.

One thing looks pretty certain at this point, divided government. Looks like the GOP is keeping the Senate unless these states like ME, IA, GA, and NC are missing mail in ballots.

He needs 2/3 of MI, WI, and PA. Polling has to be atrocious for that to happen.

It can be called for the person losing the counted votes depending on where the missing votes are. For example, in VA if all the missing votes are in the DC area you know they're heavily Biden. Conversely, if they're in a bunch of farm towns you know that vote's going to Trump.