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  1. poopy

    Risk reward sucks for options

    The fly isn't sentient. It's the structure with the x-sectional edge at inception. IOW you don't want to necessarily buy OTM bull verts if vol and skew are high unless the cs is lesser of evils.
  2. poopy

    Risk reward sucks for options

    Beginner's modeling of index skew: You can model both ATM call and put flies on index, struck to the forward. This will give you a call value > put value. cfly/ply >1. Single P/C risk reversals (neutral) are put revenue side. VERTICAL SPREAD (ps, cs, fly, etc.) risk reversals are call spread...
  3. poopy

    Risk reward sucks for options

    We were discussing symmetric strike fly-debits being a fraction of the vertical. Verts are unmodal to delta while flies are bimodal. Hence, if you want a fly structure that guarantees a gain in one tail, then trade a BWB. It's still bimodal delta, but you can structure a bull asym/BWB with a...
  4. poopy

    Risk reward sucks for options

    You fixed nothing. Don't trade ITM on all legs. The put fly is the inferior synthetic.
  5. poopy

    Depression Worsens Years After Covid

    Should have had the jab. I have empathy for those who got COVID before the vaccine was available. The greatest feat of social engineering in the history of history. >5.5 BILLION people have received a COVID vaccine.
  6. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    You have no clue where I covered and what hedges were in place.
  7. poopy

    Risk reward sucks for options

    35D strike. Nearly 3 to 1.
  8. poopy

    Does meditation help you trade in any extent?

    Vipassana*
  9. poopy

    Does meditation help you trade in any extent?

    You're clairvoyant. He still barks on command.
  10. poopy

    I Hope I'm Wrong

    Tritium decay into He-3 requires replenishment and the Russians don't perform proper maintenance in that area. The boosted phase of the staged TU-design requires strict maintenance.
  11. poopy

    I Hope I'm Wrong

    You cannot store the liquid fuel for rocket motors in the missile. It takes 30-40 mins to fuel a liquid-fuel rocket motor.
  12. poopy

    I Hope I'm Wrong

    Most/all of China's 400 thermonuclear weapons use liquid fuel for the rocket motors. We have the capability to identify readiness (fueling) in real-time. It's the reason that China is livid about THAAD deployed in South Korea. Same goes for Russia (Romania THAAD installation) although they have...
  13. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    No. I had lost the ability to hedge in vol in a reasonable mkt. Imagine a founder whose stock is trading $125/share and his cost basis is $1. The carry on the hedge became too costly and diversification (isn't).
  14. poopy

    I Hope I'm Wrong

    Neither will attack a NATO member either individually or jointly. It would go nuclear within a day.
  15. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    Say that you're right... what do you gain with these Tether threads?
  16. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    I left crypto bc I lost my vol-clearer. My cost-basis for BTC was just under $400 (125 coins). There is no edge in a L/S portfolio for me. I would not be long left tail prot bc of Tether.
  17. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    I lose nothing being wrong; you lose everything. I don't understand you fluffing Tether weekly. It serves no purpose other than to keep you from jumping out a window. Ask yourself why you keep authoring these inane Tether threads.
  18. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    No I don't. You're posting a practical use case of fractional-reserve. Let's see what happens if Tether were forced to redeem their entire reserves. You're pot committed bc you know what will happen when the music stops on Tether. BTC $5K.
  19. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    Not any more so than you have any evidence that it's not completely fabricated. They may as well say $5 billion billion as you keep writing.
  20. poopy

    Tether did 5BB+ in profit in first half = Greatest biz in history

    What are they paying you? Whatever it is it's too much. Right, that $5B is a legit figure. Dude, why "5BB"? You keep doing that... I do not think it means what you think it means. "MM" in say $5MM" refers to mille-mille. Latin. 1000 thousand.
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