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I'm going to give you a loving but stern bullshit call here. The first 2 articles you listed cite a well known spoofing case on the part of JP Morgan traders. The last one is a blog on a gold bug site, so to be taken with a massive grain of salt, and even it seems to just be talking about the...

"re-cartelize" sounds like something that happens in your knee joints:D The think it's a broader game theory model then that. In any repeating cooperate/defect game the optimal strategy is always "tit for tat", i.e. you always do exactly what your opponent does. Leads to the same cyclical thing...

It's not really a big deal to get one.

Ozone at ground level is a pollutant that causes over 1M deaths a year. Ozone in the ozone layer keeps us all alive. Altitude matters, read the article perhaps?

That all makes sense but in practice even the very wealthy cut back on spending during recessions. Just take a look at second home, high end home, yacht or private jet sales. Does that filter down to their service jobs? Maybe not for primary homes and jobs. Probably for second homes and more...

Keep in mind that gas prices haven't collapsed and many of these are diversified or even make more off the gas side of the operation than oil.

Sorry, I haven't played around with that.

All are exceptionally sensitive to the economy though. That's the curse of high paid blue collar self employment, you really have to average it out an entire economic cycle which means averaging some zeros in there. I bought a boat from one of these folks for a song in 2008, they made the...

So it's more of a minor speed bump then a real issue? Curious if anyone has taken a stab at quantifying the $/barrel amount required to overcome that hurdle.

Speaking of that, I never really understood why the price of a bond doesn't reflect the chance of the bond defaulting at pretty much exactly the same level of information as a CDS? I guess because the eventual bond payout is unknown where the CDS is binary?

That's been a staple of the tinfoil hat gold bugs for at least 20 years now. Which "bullion banks" are you referring to and what "gold futures contracts" specifically?

I think you missed what happened. There is no OPEC+ a the moment, it's everyone produce as much as you can as fast as you can. There's no agreement to comply with. And the Saudis didn't slash prices, that was a result of the massive supply increase which Russia actually instigated by refusing to...

Does much Saudi oil make it to the gulf anymore anyway? Are there retooling issues with refineries to switch from WTI to sour crude? I just don't know as much as I'd like about the mechanics of all that, but from my naive view it seems like there's a few months buffer just in rearranging the...

Mostly bilateral over the counter trades. Since they don't clear, you need to be a creditworthy counterparty to play. Which means more than just a FICO score over 700 in this case:D

If you come across it IM me the link, would be interested to read it.

Supposedly $$70-$80 a barrel for KSA and $50 for Russia. I think that's both a soft number and one that would require a downturn that lasts years. KSA along has decent cash reserves, the ability to take on significant debt, and an oil company that they own the vast majority of with a market cap...

No doubt Lebanon is completely messed up and I wouldn't be surprised to see all kinds of issues come to light there. I'm just saying it's not a leading indicator for KSA or any other the other oil states.

The Saudis actually wanted to keep a lid on production, my understanding was that the Russians blew the deal up. The only rational thing for the Saudis to do at that point, given they have the lowest cost production and are in a better position to weather it out, is to max output and hurt the...

If 90% of your exports are oil (KSA) and oil is priced in dollars, you're not really pegging to the dollar in a way that say Argentina did. Even if it wasn't officially pegged, it wouldn't move much and there's no defense of the peg that they have to do to maintain that. Plus massive reserves if...

The vast majority of renewable energy is used to produce electricity. A grand total of .5%, yes half a percent, of U.S. electricity comes from petroleum. Maybe Tesla is impacted, but despite what Elon would like you to believe they're not even a tiny corner of the renewable energy market. So no...