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I agree it is hard to have a lot of sympathy for anyone in a boom bust industry who spends like their high water mark pay is going to go on for the next 20 years. You get paid a lot in those jobs precisely because it's boom bust, so don't live high on the boom and come crying during the bust. I...

I think we clearly established that you know nothing about economics in previous threads but are suffering from a severe Dunning Kruger effect when it comes to the subject....how's that non-farm payroll report going for you BTW?

At what point do people start renting tanker trucks to arb this?

Your point is well taken and worth thinking about. I don't know that low oil prices will necessarily lead to deflation but they are certainly a deflationary pressure. That's a very different thing then the pervasive mistaken idea that the oil and gas extraction industry makes up a significant...

Let's talk real numbers here because I see this thrown out all the time and it's really an unsupported assertion. How many people do you guess are employed in the oil and gas extraction industry? If not numbers, what percent of the U.S. workforce? It would have to be something like 15-20% for...

Yes and that's a good point. Just because the company survives doesn't mean the shareholders survive.

This kind of question I think entirely misses the point. Any economy is a positive feedback loop. As long as it's going good, people spend more money into the economy, so it starts going better, giving them more money to spend into the economy.... And the same thing in reverse on the way down...

To the OP, first off, wide spreads don't mean you can't trade near the mid if you put in a limit order. Have you actually tried trading these or are you just looking at your screen? Second, if the bid/ask spreads are unreasonable you can make a mint acting as a market maker. If you're not...

What's an example of this? Unless it's an ETN closed to new investment it would be surprising to see a pervasive discount to NAV on an ETF that has an exact match open ended mutual fund.

Depends what kind of PE you are, but if you're doing LBOs on consumer space companies, Golden Gate Capital comes to mind as a good example, then your portfolio companies (Red Lobster anyone?) are getting killed at the moment regardless of your investment timeline.

I apologize. I've responded to at least 5 different folks here who are convinced of some vast conspiracy in the CPI calculation who couldn't be bothered to actually read the methodology and mistakenly put you in that bucket.

Who "they" are you referring to? The BLS, who computes inflation in the U.S.? According to the CPI Handbook of Methods which is freely viewable to anyone who can be bothered to do a simple web search and take time to read it at https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/cpihom.pdf The handbook that...

I guess I could have predicted that, typical drivel for that place!

Well some of us know. See how I can do that and no-one can call me on it. Although unlike the author I've held a clearance and spent 20 years doing this shit.

One thing to think about is property tax. In the 2008 crisis state and local were hit super hard with tax revenues, and unlike the federal govt most of them have to balance their budget every year. A big source of revenue for the local folks is property tax. If I was looking at people to tax...

The article is bullshit. Once nice thing about referencing "above-Top Secret" contingency plans is that you can make up whatever you want and you can't be fact checked. But since anyone who knows jack about the clearance system would refer to something of this nature as SCI rather than the made...

The problem is it's not "accepted" as an inflation hedge. Some folks would like it to be, history shows it's poorly corelated and math shows correlation does not equal causation. Gold people tend toward irrationally and paranoia, or more likely gold attracts those kind of people. Either way...

You looked at the wrong article then. It's a common thing for someone new to think is the holy grail but as others have pointed out it will always bankrupt you. You did discover something else in that search though, which is the human brain's powerful ability to ignore disconfirming information...

Inflation and deflation refer to increases and decreases I'm the cost to buy goods and services. Not interest rates. Generally interest rates are a little bit higher than inflation, bit that's not a given especially at inflection points. We're not seeing deflation yet in goods and services costs.

Deflation is hard to fix. Negative rates are related to inflation but they aren't themselves deflation and there's no indication we're in a long term deflationary environment yet. There have only been a few instances in modern economic history of negative rates and even fewer cases of deflation...