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Best idea, just go with futures. Next best, if you're working with liquid indexes where borrow costs are minimal and you're not in an IRA, just short the long ETF. Every short ETF rebalances daily. This is not decay, in fact they all meet the daily percent change target almost exactly. However...

If you're paranoid then you're not going to be persuaded by rational arguments. Some people are highly risk averse when it comes to interacting with other people, perhaps for good reason because of past personal experience. It's pretty hard to achieve anything great with that mindset, but to...

So why not go with Nadex, no payout worries there, they're a CFTC regulated exchange.

What makes the futures any more high risk than the ETF? The physically backed gold ETFs are a tax nightmare and track the same underlying, seems irrational to prefer them.

Clearly it's your money and you're free to do as you want with it. However I'd suggest that you may be seeing what you want to see and ignoring the contrary evidence. First, options have the borrow cost baked in. If they didn't you could simply risk free arbitrage the difference with the...

There is really no good guidance on this, but it seems the prevailing wisdom is that it does apply to put and call options. If you sell a deep ITM put option and, at the time you sell the put option, that there is no substantial likelihood it will expire unexercised, then its considered the same...

Good point, the amount of violation of put/call parity generally reflects the borrow cost. Seems like someone could put together a database based on this and make some good money.

Those are good questions, I had to do a little research but I think there are 2 issues to consider. First, the borrow cost on TYO is currently 4.87% at IB, so that kills all but 1.1% of any decay. Second, TYO and any 3X or inverse ETF is a daily balancing fund which means it returns the inverse...

The problem is everyone's borrow rate is different and I have been unable to find any historic data even with that caveat. I believe this is one of the last big cash cows for brokers that they would rather have continue to languish in obscurity since any visibility on it only highlights how they...

Dude proudly lists himself and his prior affiliation with Epiphany on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/brendanpbyrne) You really want to mess with him you can get him to connect with you, download his list of connections in common with you, and inMail them all with your experiences.

This is a gross oversimplification, but part of MPT says you demand a higher return for higher volatility. While small cap indexes outperform SPY over most long-term horizons, they are also more volatile.

I'm guessing you're right, which is too bad because that Tahiti idea would be pretty appealing!

To answer one of your questions, Beta is not a measure of volatility, although that is a common misperception. It is a measure of how correlated the return is to the index, generally the S&P 500. A stock with a Beta of 1 goes up and down 1% for every 1% the S&P goes up or down, in other words it...

Snowball's chance it passes but it might actually be best if it did. As pointed out, CME/CBOE would simply move out of the state and the whole thing would be an utter failure. Any failure is ammo against a similar move anywhere else. I did get one nugget out of the article that I'm curious to...

It depends on you and the idea but you've got a start. On that track you want something that has a critical mass of investors who understand your technology, i.e. if its a specialty chemical than you might not find anyone comfortable enough with the concept to invest. You also need to show the...

If you're a serial entrepreneur with a couple successful exits than an idea is all you need, or a PhD with a patent on a clearly marketable technology. But in either of those cases you don't really need crowd funding either. Otherwise you're one of thousands of idea stage companies competing for...

That's mighty generous of you, given that it costs you between $.30 and nothing to initiate an ACH!

That's how fines work in the U.S., any fine for anything. Those impacted are free to file a civil suit, and many have. In some cases the court can also order restitution, but it is separate from the fines. It's how the law has worked in the U.S. for the past couple hundred years.

I actually glean quite a few nuggets. No one giving up a fully formed idea, more like brainstorming with lots of horrible ideas, some of which get you to think about a good one. I especially look at ways people manage to almost guarantee they'll lose money, great opportunities there when you...

I picked the model and year with care to avoid exactly that kind of nitpicking, in fact you'll see I even carefully picked 1991 which was the first year the wide-body Camry was produced which is the same basic model as the current Camry. I'll be happy to provide you a mint condition 1991 Camry...