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He's short nearly 50% of the float of DB (which is $16B per what you posted)? That's a pretty massive bet! The latest short interest shows DB at 41.7M shares, which at the $12 price you posted represents $.5 billion of the alleged $7.5 billion that Soros is short. Where is the other $7B? Data...

That's not specifics. Specifics would be "There is a $5B Dec 2017 Note outstanding that becomes due in full when market cap falls below $15B". Hope is not a strategy, and the problem with going short DB is you have to hope that both this derivative chain exists and hope that the German govt...

Where can I find out more about the specifics of these derivatives?

Are you pointing out that $16.4B in capital still thinks the company isn't going to go under?

Sorry for not being specific, I was talking cash. Thanks for the insight, curious as to why the MOC process can't be automated to take place more quickly? You'd think the specialists could set up algos to figure this all out within a couple seconds, especially since the MOC orders need to be in...

A bit of a rant but curious as well. We live in a microsecond HFT world, so why is it that we don't know the actual closing level of the S&P 500 until sometimes 4:15-4:20? On Friday, for example, the final closing number was almost a full point off the number that all the real-time feeds showed...

I was pointing out that you need to know wtf you're talking about before anyone will give you money, not discussing the merits of using a Sharpe ratio on an options strategy which was the OPs assertion, not mine!

Were you thinking something like Listen, I come down on the same side as you on almost everything here, we both have been around the block on this and know what we're doing. If you read my posts you'll find I'm an almost militant efficient markets guy, so I don't think I found some hidden...

Let's assume I know wtf I'm doing when it comes to ES and SPX and have held thousands of the options on both to expiration over many years. Precisely because SPX options settle to cash and ES options settle into the underlying ES you can imagine that it's useful to use one in some instances and...

I'm not trying to exploit anything related to the difference between SPX and ES. I am working with 5-15 point spreads, so 7 points is extremely relevant to what I'm doing and if the ES/SPX delta decays an unexpected point during a 2 week period on a 5 point spread that's a big deal for me. In...

The index return between now and then is unknown and could be negative or positive. More importantly, why is Dec ES in fact trading 7 point below SPX today if not for the intervening dividend payments? And why does the delta between the Dec ES and SPX get smaller the days where a significant...

Thanks Martinghoul, samuel11, and FSU, just what I was looking for.

I'm talking a week or two in the future here, many dividends are announced this far out (http://www.dividend.com/ex-dividend-dates.php) enough for my purposes at least. Just to make sure I've got it right, if you assume interest rates are 0, then cash flows today aren't worth any more than cash...

Based on your other posts I figured we were probably in violent agreement, as Maverick points out I probably didn't get the distinction between short term and longer expected return.

So there's a 7 point discount today between the Dec ES and SPX. Let's assume 0% interest. If all the S&P stocks that were going to pay out dividends between now and the Dec ES futures expiration went ex on Monday, then that 7 point discount would go away on Monday (ignoring interest and some...

I'll start with an intuitive look. Right now the Dec ES futures are trading at about 7 points lower than the spot SPX. Assuming 0% interest, which is essentially the case right now, that 7 point delta will gradually decay as component stocks of the S&P 500 go ex-dividend until they match on the...

Preaching to the choir on that, agree 100% as you'll see from my past posts! I just need to have an accurate delta between SPX and ES going forward a few days for a strategy that sometimes uses one and sometimes uses the other so I can compare apples to apples. I've found that during weeks...

I am looking for a dividend calculator that will tell me how much of a dividend will be paid on the S&P 500 by day, taking into account the weighting of the stock in the index. What I'm really trying to do here is determine in advance how much the ES vs spot delta is going to change based on...

You know while reviewing your posts to provide you examples of your behavior I did notice that you intersperse insightful, useful comments along with bizarre denial of obvious, verifiable facts. It occurs to me that this, combined with your age and the constant denial, might point to...

Unbelieveable! In this very string you stated "instead of attacking the article or the subject you attack me." I'm going to let the facts stand for themselves here, there's no point in continuing a conversation with someone who denies what they typed in black and white just minutes ago.