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  1. S

    So do I pay "margin interest" or anything for Forex leverage?

    Another way to look at this....what about the Swiss funding bill that passed this year that had even MORE pork in it? Just a thought experiment, I actually don't know much if anything about the Swiss budget. But the point is that everything is relative with currencies. If everyone is subject to...
  2. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    So much wrong with this, not even counting the fact that the budget surplus both happened 2 years after Reagan when Clinton was president and had nothing to do with trade deficits. I can't tell if you don't grasp the difference between a budget deficit and a trade deficit entirely or just think...
  3. S

    I’m of the belief we’ll never see asset deflation again

    Sure you are (sorry, couldn't find emoji laughing at you)!
  4. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    As I said earlier in the thread, "when the U.S. sells a 30 year treasury at 2% today they're going to be paying 2% on that debt between now and 2051, no matter what happens to interest rates between now and then. Even a 10 year note sold today at 1.5% locks in that rate through 2031." So no, you...
  5. S

    I’m of the belief we’ll never see asset deflation again

    How does Treasury "find buyers"? When you understand the answer to that question, a lot of this will make a lot more sense to you.
  6. S

    I’m of the belief we’ll never see asset deflation again

    The price of oil went negative not so long ago, after years of these same types of warnings about hyperinflation. I include myself in those who thought we were going to have hyperinflation back in 2009. I've been through enough of these "sure to happen" scenarios to know, if nothing else...
  7. S

    I’m of the belief we’ll never see asset deflation again

    I very distinctly remember hearing a lot of this "...never happen again" talk just before the dot com bust. There really haven't been many if any actual "...never happen again" moments in financial markets over the last 200 years or so, but thousands of anticipated "......never happen again"...
  8. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    But were starting to undo it before COVID came and absent the Trump tax cuts they could easily have unwound over the past 4 years without significantly impacting the economy. The Fed is just one lever on the economy, if the other levers allow them to unwind they will. They don't like being at...
  9. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    I don't know that we can answer that because back in the good old laissez faire days we had significant recessions that lasted several years with only few year of recovery in between. That's what we would have had absent the Fed doing anything when COVID hit, for example. The interest rates...
  10. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    No, you dissemble and fail to answer the simple question I asked because the answer doesn't paint your sudden concern about this in a favorable light, does it? Let's be realistic, if you're talking about the Fed balance sheet your talking about the deficit which is entirely a political...
  11. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    So first off, you were equally concerned and crying crocodile tears about this last May? Two years ago? Or just now? Given that it's a continuing problem according to you, one wonders why just at the end of Jan this year you decided to speak up about it? Secondly, why is it untenable? If we had...
  12. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    Given that the Fed is doing a good deal more than linearly purchasing assets I think it's a fairly gross mischaracterization you're making. As you can see here, the balance sheet balloons in crisis as most people in the macro world agree it should and flatlines or decreases in between. Should...
  13. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    By why, specifically, is QE a problem? Is any and all expansion of money supply bad? If not, what level is bad and why, exactly? "Because QE" isn't a reason.
  14. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    Sure. Just as @piezoe described, the Fed's balance sheet expansion isn't a problem in and of itself. There isn't a bright line you cross and all after is doom and gloom, and even if there was a line, it is constantly in motion as the economy grows. Additionally, as one of the world's main...
  15. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    You clearly seemed to think that an asset purchase program that actually contributed to the treasury was a stimulus program that contributed to the deficit. If that's the depth of your understanding of the topic, it's pretty much going to be wasted breath to go into macro topics with you. But...
  16. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    I comprehend that TARP wasn't a stimulus program. It appears you do not.
  17. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    TARP was the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The government bought troubled assets which it then liquidated over time. It was profitable to the U.S. government to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. How, exactly, did that put us on this road to doom you seem so certain about, despite, it...
  18. S

    What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

    Macro and micro economics are two entirely different beasts. If you haven't studied macro and instead just extrapolate the micro econ principles you're familiar with from your own life onto economies then, as you would say, "you can't understand this and we can't help you". That's the point...
  19. S

    SEC Suspends Trading in Multiple Issuers Based on Social Media and Trading Activity

    Nice article from 2013. Hint, the reason that's all you could find is because banks aren't allowed to prop trade anymore, per the section of code I so clearly referenced for you. That's the restriction, clear as day if you read the law. The only question is if you're capable of doing that?
  20. S

    dumb covered call question. Sell calls or buy shares first?

    Also keep in mind that your margin might be huge when you sell an uncovered call before buying the stock.
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