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Sorry to say but you are doomed to failure with this approach. You are scared to let winners run and are just going to try and take lots of small wins. Your edge is not good enough if it even exists (how do I know this, your lack of confidence in letting winners run) to keep you above...

Fair points, but even at $400B I don't think we see anything near your scenario of a global depression. This article illustrates well the dangers of counterparty risk, the Phillipine development example in particular. http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CS-C-db-MBI-WB-bcs/index/a/15847

As you know derivatives are a zero sum proposition, some will lose and others will gain equally so the money is not lost to the system as a whole as it is in a stock market route for example. Did you also see the article that the Chinese SWF is allocating $30B to western Mutual funds this...

This is why: http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-MCO-BSC-fre-fnm/index/a/15848

Would make a great policy paper but not sure there is anyone that farsighted in our government at the moment.

Long QQQQ 43.55 STOP 41 Looking for 48 Added MSFT 28.55

Out ES 27.50 Out remaining WM 17.92 Looks like a lot of selling of big caps in to any rally attempt and some small rotation in to tech but no conviction.

Sell what you can?

I think he knows this which is why most of his businesses are cash cows. Everything is relative and even if his equity is getting slashed as long as everyone else's is too that cash his businesses throw off will allow him to $ cost average (in a Buffet way ofcourse) in to some pretty attractive...

Good points Libertad, the only one I would take issue with is the wealth sharing and replace it with better corporate governance and elimination of the proxy system so there would be more accountability by management. Employees collectively often have large stakes in their companies through...

Anyone who used the word “Armageddon” in their article title better have some pretty strong facts to back that up. Unfortunately the examples you cite of pas crisis and the naysayers of those times doe not support your hyperbole. Yes the Asian crisis was terrible but look at those countries...

If you had to play devil's advocate what arguements can you make for there not being a long and protracted economic contraction?

Out 1/3 WM18.75

Good point, this is why it is better to let the market take care of the misalloation of resources. People who are in more of a home than they can afford have to sell, they move to one they can afford and are no not so house poor that they can affoprd to still prtcipate in the economy. House...

You are wrong and evidemce of that is to be found in the example of Japan and the UK to name two countries that have sufferred similar economic downturns like California but have not had the consequences of a Brazil or Argentina. The reason is that the per capital level of production in these...

What a weak paper, it is the same as me saying look at the similarity between the chart of the SPX in 19XX, 19XX and 19XX and note the similarities between those years and this year and then making a prediction based on that. Very weak. No normalizing was done for currency depreciation, no...

If you want to short the ag complex and don't want to deal with the volatility and leverage of futures try DBA.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/insiders-betting-heavily-bull-market-rebound/story.aspx?guid=%7BF9CDDB9D%2D4A87%2D40F4%2DB2E5%2D167CC266477E%7D&dist=morenews

Sorry I don't subscribe to that theory of the markets, sure there is some fufdging of government numbers but by and large the market is efficient with the information it has. Put another way suggesting the market is being gamed assumes that some entity knows what they are doing and is...

Instead of Bush coming on TV with his bumbling "everything is great, the economy is healthy, and oh by the way don't worry about the Fed panicking just go out and spend your checks, yuck, yuck" I wish someone who understood the frigging banking system would go on CSpan and explain in detail...