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Earnings slashed by FBR today on the refiners with no sell off and TSO is up on the bad news, looks like the down side risk is minimal and a good way to go short oil without too much risk.

Gutsy call given how close we still are to that level (not surprising given your equally gutsy namesake). You may be right but I think that the credit situation is worsening and despite the bounce in the financials today their pain is spreading. Look at the PRU deal getting done at 9%, the...

One possible explanation for why the FED isn't concerned about inflation running hotter than their target http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/06/23/a-kind-word-for-inflation.aspx

Looking for dovish comments, $ takes a hit and oil surges, stocks take it on the chin. Today was a great shorting opp.

Heavy buying of TSO July 22.5 Calls

Look at the QQQQs, price sitting right on the neckline. Not a huge fan of H&S but I like ones where you can trade with the trend (down). We might get a bounce here to 47-47.50 (at very least close the gap) which should present a good opportunity to short for an eventual break through the neck...

Looks to me as though they have been putting in a valiant effort for the last couple of sessions already, maybe they know they are going to get a chance to reload this week. Must be nice.

I don't buy the understaffed excuse, all these people the bank isn't foreclosing on will surely be accruing major late fees and interest as they are not paying any principle (I wonder how that is accounted for in the books). Eventually the bank will own their property or it will have its pound...

I like VLO http://seekingalpha.com/article/81720-tracking-crack-spreads?source=yahoo

Thanks for posting these Mr Dodge, I agree we will be going lower.

$15-25? This was a growth story when the bid was made but it has lost that earnings growth since. PE is now much higher than its industry average and margins are falling. Options look like they are saying no deal in July and likely a much lower price in Oct. If FIG pulls the plug where...

Mav's eloquence notwithstanding the sample size isn't exactly compelling me to sell any puts here and now (though I did in March to handsome reward). One reason why it could be different this time is that we should have crashed already, closer to the time when the majority were indeed...

171 for the month:KEY,WB, MOS, SPY puts and QQQQ Bull credit spread accounted for most of the gains, would have been over 200 but for a bad hedge with FXI, and a loss in PENN. Have a great weekend all!

Mark Cook ($400 month) walks and talks daily as does Jeff Cooper ($900 year). Anekdoten of the AHG thread walks the walk and has posted his methodology for free, it works for all time frames and is the single best contribution to ET.

You just posted that to give Stocktrder a panic attack didn't you :D Serioulsy though, it isn't a matter of if we are going to see much lower levels just when, its common sense and we all know it despite the daily head fakes. Despite all the finagling the banks and Fed are doing they have...

Nice little pop today, hope it has some legs

The point is that housing and the financials exist less in a vacuum now than at any other time in our financial history. To have such devastation wrought in two significant segments of the economy at a time when oil and food prices are also at record levels and long rates are rising it is simply...

A tip for bidding on REO properties: send in a letter with all the reasons why the low bid is justified including but not limited to any repairs that need doing. A good one is negative changes to the surounding neighbourhood since the property last sold and recent comps(if they help justify the...

Home Equity fell by $879B in the past year and it shows no signs of having finished dropping yet. From what I read most banks are so backed up with properties that they are having a hard time keeping up with them all and bringing them to market. The ones that are coming to market are not selling...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t997hlTqepw 27% decrease in CA median home price in 11 months and inventory is up to 4.25 year and increaseing while sales are decreasing DESPITE falling prices. How do you reconcile this with the seemingly head in the clouds valuations sported by equities...