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I learned that I am a very lucky SOB.

Covered my short as it may run up to earnings on the 21st, nice little trade. Will be looking to buy some puts in the next few weeks.

Slowdown coming for U.S.: Caterpillar CEO Thu Dec 7, 2006 11:16am ET http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-12-07T162449Z_01_N07183751_RTRUKOC_0_US-CATERPILLAR-OWENS.xml&from=business&src=120706_1344_FEATURES_economic_outlook

Great Job Eagle :)

They couldn't as the builder bought the land when it was about $100K, the land alone would cost about $4-500K now.

I am short the stock and like where it closed but you make a good point Ice regarding expriation. If things look better tomorrow I may pick up a few Dec calls as a hedge.

Take a look at NEW and CMO in the subprime area.

Looks like zillow has undergone an update or upgrade, much better. Here in inner suburb of Boston I see that two new construction SFH that were sitting on the market for a year sold. They were on the market for 1.3M and 1.1 and they endded up selling in August for 1M and .85M respectively...

I agree Eagle, I have been buying the dips for months and today was the first day that I started to short the indexes.

I agree, its broken and the new handset it has is apparently fraught with problems and a lower margin item. I went short today too.

This was already posted in one of the established housing threads.

Subprime lender Ownit Mortgage shuts down http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF201AE5C%2DF0D5%2D4DE6%2D8471%2D197B09864C5C%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

Looks like things are starting to crumble. Fleck's rap today stated that the cost of buying protection on sub prime home equity loans jumped 20% in two days. http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2006/12/05/1206bizforeclose.html

Nice calls SI, here is your applause clap clap clap :)

How would it work using OTM strikes? Yes the big dips, that is why you have to keep putting on new positions as you reach new strikes capturing the increase in volatility to help you. Also, the outliers (in this case the 520 calls and the 430 puts mitigating somewhat. These are perhaps where...

:D Yes you are right about that. You don't exit, you stay in until expiration and keep putting on new ones each time the underlying hits a new strike. If it comes back to a previous strike you have already used to put on a position you just sit pat. You don't initiate any new positions within...

Looks to me that we are just about to get another strong move up. Maybe a blowoff move, maybe not, but the next move looks up to me.

And are there ways to improve its return? Take Goog for example: Buy X 440 Calls Sell Y 470 Calls Buy Z 430 Puts Buy X 530 Puts Sell Y 500 Puts Buy Z 520 Calls Put this position on just as Theta starts to pick up. The return seems decent with X=Y=Z=1 and as the underlying moves...

6 or 7 figures doesn't make any difference, the fact is that even a lowly retail piker like myself can see that they are engaging in highly leveraged strategies that are not the picture of low risk conservative trading that you connected big shots are painting.

You can add sigm to the list, rimm has lost its momo.