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I think the Fed had this data already at their last meeting so it is no surprise given the result of the FOMC last week.

Yes I think so. Look for widening credit spreads and CDO prices. All asset classes will suffer as liquidity will be withdrawn across the board though I think that the US$ will show some strength as the carry trade comes off and money comes home to coever margins and flees from EM. When the...

While a day like yesterday looked bearish to me it wasn't all that unusual. I think that the key to this market having a serious crisis is not going to come from equities, it will start in the bonds. Look for widening spreads and higher CDO prices as the tell. That will force funds to take money...

After reading this I think you have to agree that the risks that they are taking are unprecedented and the return is too. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ab.Ld5DC2sb0&refer=home

Holy crap! Never have so many been paid so little to take on so much risk. What happens if there is a default somewhere? I doubt that the hedggies will have the funds to cover the CDO's when they seem to be holding less than 2% equity for each one (and even that is probably leveraged). If I...

2 things that I find you HAVE to do. 1. Work out regularly(preferably outside) 2. Maintain good sleep habits.

Yes I agree. I am basically a tape reader and have noticed that in the last few sessions and certainly this morning the big lots on the ES (over 400) were printing at the bid and the smaller lots were hitting the ask. This is a change from what has been happening. The afternoon saw bigs trades...

He is right in that both fear and greed make it probable. Fear of not making the return required to keep money coming in (or at least not leaving) will push managers in to riskier positions (and to me examples of this are everywhere). Greed of making huge bets with OPM ala amaranth (or hail...

This saga will make one hell of a book.

Damn, this is the sell signal that I should have waited for :D

What they should say is that it is hard to know how big a bubble it is going get until it bursts. :)

This is my problem with holding gold, when asset prices get cut (or i should say if) I think gold will inevitably take a major haircut too though relatively speaking it will fare better. It is after the correction when the central banks really prime the pump of recovery that I think gold will...

Three things that I see that could cause some problems: A strengthening Yen A significant uptick in real US unemployment/ significant decrease in US consumption Some massive fund or a few of them that can figure out where the loose thread/s is/are that will unravel everything and are willing...

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=12066 A good article that supports the short term bullish view for the ES/YM given today's action.

Here's an idea, why not start a conversation with the guy. Thank him for the returns that he has been getting for you (calculate what they are risk adjusted and then do the same for you own account and you might be surprised) Tell him you are interested in money management and show him what you...

Thanks Piezoe, and I agree wise words indeed. I would just say that having an opinion and finding a place with defined risk to trade it is not the same as just having an opinion and trading it without any regard to market action,levels, risk, and money management. I trade my own money and the...

Thanks Wetton, I too am a big fan of solvency :) and have been doing this a while so was fairly well hedged and ended Jan. up 6% due to selective (and lucky) buying some dips and a couple of other big trades (OIL, IBM, AAPL) but it was an intense month and ex all the puts that I ploughed profits...

Good suggestion, but a week is all I need, thanks. Maybe there is nothing to understand and there is no sound basis for what is occuring other than money is easy and greed is rampant to hell with the risks when it is OPM being played with. Do you know why risk is seemingly being ignored? I...

Well I am out of all index futures puts and keeping June QQQQ puts. Painful but necesssary.

Yeah seriously, I worked my butt off this past month and need a break. Will trade better when I get back fresh and clear headed after the pounding that my positions have taken.