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I think the most likely Black swan will be the vanishing of liquidity, almost overnight in the desk traded exotic CDS and CDOs, especially on EM debt. The house of cards is built on the leverage provided by these things. My guess is that a large currency move will be the precipitating event.

@%$@#%$@

This is in part why i have felt that an EM short was tehe way to go. However the Economist is always years early in its calls so if this is what they are saying now it maybe 2009 or 2010 before what they are talking about comes to pass. They called the housing slump in the Uk two or three years...

As I have said before, it will be approved as the political fall out of it not being approved is too great for those that run the show at the FDA. They are all about politics.

I like Hussman and I am thinking of putting some money with him as he plays it safe but looks to be able to make a good return over the whole business cycle. My own trading is not doing so well the last few weeks as the EEM just keeps going higher and the NQ turned out to be a poor choice as...

The country as a whole may be poor but there are more than a few very rich Chinese, and more than a few in China translates to big numbers. I saw an item that cost $3500US sell over 400 units in the Shanghai Galleria in one day. I doubt any US mall could match those numbers.

Golden week holiday.

Wolfe could take a lesson from what you wrote, I know I did, an excellent peice of prose.

Might be time to buy the estate of your dreams in time for the coming round of bail outs. Can't beat em join em, after all we will all end up paying in our taxes. Those of us that pay the most may as well be benificiaries of our own largess. Had my eye on a lovely estate on the North shore and...

A poorly written mish mash that reveals more about Wolfe's assumptions that color his perception than it does about his main cast of hedge fund characters. Gross vulgarity is certainly a side effect of money run amok but to paint everyone with the same brush is a real stretch. The attack on PTJ...

I maybe leaving money on the table but rather book the profit than be greedy so out other 50% at +1.05.

A well seasoned newbie :)

Very impressive, I don't speak Japanese though, How did he do it? Interesting that he doesn't appear to have many charts up on his screens.

Taking 1/2 position off here +0.70 moving stop up to 42.75

Most people who have been doing this for a while don't really care too much about other's accounts and profitability because they know that every trader has a different style. Comparisons tend to be as useless as comparing apples to oranges. Long time traders will likely have experienced severe...

Good for you, the world needs more well rounded smart people. As far as trading goes the best traders I have personally come in contact with (making in the mid 7 sometimes low 8 figures annually) have been shrewd people but certainly not significant intellects, though undoubtedly the best...

What you really mean is that volatility increases near the end of cycles. It is because weak hands are fully invested at that point. Big players do not jump in and out like weak hands and pikers.

40% correction is possible from here but IF it ever happens it will be politically precipitated, not just some random market sell off. The danger for the Shanghai market is that the political factions in Shanghai that get their corruption paybacks through manipulation of the stock on that market...

$/Yen is fueling this and probably short covering in tech land also. Internals are actually pretty good today and better than they have been for a while. My EM short is taking a bit of a drubbing due to decrease in volatility and rally in EEM but the NQ (looks like the YM would have been a...

By Lo, most of the stuff you post (thanks) is macro in nature. If that is what you re trading off you need to be looking at the weekly charts not the daily or X minute charts. You also need to give yourself wiggle room (usually translates to decreased position size) as macro events take time to...