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Good point!

This nails the market for me EXACTLY. Trendlines, S/R, fibs, retracements are not objectively reliable. Nobody can say that this channel will work and that channel won't. To me, all TA does is give the average person enough confidence to take a chance, and that's all we are really doing here...

Well if you know something I don't, I would love a little insight! I could use more time out in the yard with my dog instead of spending hours deciding how the market "feels" :p

Looks like a long to me here! Not trading it, just observing.

HA HA! That was two weeks prior :eek:

I think you are absolutely right. The TICK and the pullback trades are not 100% reliable, and yet some feel better than others. I wish there was a way to quantify that, so I could automate it!!!! :) Honestly I can't tell if I just haven't done enough digging, or if it's always going to be...

For me, it's a matter of the risk vs. the reward. A trade that that is at the line of "death" both on price and on TICK value gives me a chance to get in with the smallest amount of risk possible. If the market literally went 1-2 ticks higher (to 54.25's for example), I would know I was wrong...

TICK value. Also, shorts are more likely to touch the 61.8 over longs (in my experience), but I don't put a lot of faith in that fact alone. The main factor is the TICK value. If the market looks right, I want to get in when the TICK is as close to 600 for shorts, or -600 for longs.

Filled

short 53.25's stop to b/e target 47.75

LOL

I've put a lot of thought into this behavior, as it has been one of the hardest mental hurdles for me to overcome since starting to trade. Here's how I process this: If you take a low probability trade and lose, there is instant gratification. What I mean is, it is easy to quantify why the...

I have noticed that you tend to call out a number of trades that are in the last leg of their move. Here's the thing, human emotions have patterns, and you are likely to "feel" the same way about the market at similar junctures, right? So I.D. that feeling and link it to the fact that more...

I tried to do 2-3 so that I could scale out, but I just couldn't handle it. I was risking 8 ticks to make 2, and after +2 I would take the trade off in fear. Now that's a terrible R:R! I had to go to 1. As I mentioned, I'm still there for the most part. With 1 contract I have very little...

It opened my eyes to how little I actually knew about the market and how it moved. Honestly, I think I was in shock for months and just bled out even more for a while, just completely dazed. I remember going beserk in a hotel room on a business trip, just completely melting down and reaching...

Not that it matters too much, but I have traded as many as 5 contracts before. I typically only trade 1-2 tops. I never enter both at the same time, either. I will start looking for an entry with 1 to get a "feel" for the market. If I feel like the price point I was looking for was right, I...

Have a great weekend everyone!

I don't like the look of that guys. LONGS BEWARE.

I second the bucket notion :)

Out at 48.75's.