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Only 1pt shy! Im short a tiny position of call spreads on SPY, but that's it.

You are killing it with these calls today

Since I closed it after just a few ticks, that probably means we should tank soon lol

short YM 16973 covered 16968 Wasn't too confident on that to hold

Yeah that is a good point. I have done the ES, but I haven't ever tried doing any spreads on SPX, so I didn't know how it was relative to the SPY. I guess if i can get a better fill through SPY, then that will negate the difference in commissions.

Put on a couple nov spy call credit spreads @ 204/204.50. In hindsight I should have just used the ES or SPX instead because the commission blows on that close of a strike, assuming I can get the same relative fill through any of those 3 routes of course. Oh well, consider that lesson learned...

I've got a professor for this portfolio management class (we manage a real $500k with the goal of outperforming the S&P) that says take what the analysts are forecasting as the price target, subtract 20%, and that is a good starting point for a reasonable target. If there isn't much room to that...

That's where about 99% of my trade exits take place from and about 75% of my entries. So convenient when on the go.

Nice! Still equal/slightly outperforming the market it looks like

Once vix got below 20 and closed there it dropped really quick to the area it is at now. It might not be that crazy for it to get to that level.

I've been debating on selling some S&P call spreads before the close. The 2055/2060 spread has a decent credit of around 1.50 for Nov 6

I would say it would depend on the difference in rates. If the difference isn't much at all, maybe do the 30. But if you can save a decent amount going with the 15, and can easily afford the payments for either like you said, then do the 15. I went with 30 for my house. Partially because the 15...

I don't think that would happen with American style options. Otherwise everybody would just buy that option instead of the front.

I don't think the second month options will stay the same. They probably won't drop as much or as quickly as the front month, but there would be no reason for them to maintain that higher vega anymore either.

This is one of the main things I am working with on the modeling is accounting for the months like December that are weaker and just in general figuring out what is a true dislocation and what isn't.

You are definitely right on that. Thanks for the advice! I am working on figuring out how to model the slope/term structure to figure out when the dislocation is occurring.

Scratch that, out at .01. I'm at home sick with the flu, time to go back to sleep lol. With the vix falling below 20, I'm wondering if this is at least a short term bottom

short nov/dec at -.02. If this moves against me like it is looking it might, I will close it out pretty quickly.

Sold at .20. Picked up a nickel after commission

Sold! @.20