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Let me clarify. Suppose you have developed a system using one or more parameters. It has a positive expectation. Then you discover that yet another parameter affects the expectation. You obtain several different levels of "confidence" based on parametric backtesting. What you have done is refine...

Unless you are using a Cray for optimization, it has to be binary. Otherwise the optimization is outrageously complicated, and maybe even optimizing randomness. Scaling in as the probability of win increases as a winning trade evolves is a different matter. There you can use statistics.

I was hoping that someone more knowledgeable than me would reply. But on ET, you ask a stupid question, you get a stupid person to answer. The inside market, and the deeper market, do not truly reflect demand from at least three kinds of orders: totally hidden (no size at all showing), iceberg...

Ever hear of iceberg and hidden and renewing orders, and dark pools?

Thanks for correcting me. But odd. When I searched for it before I posted it wasn't there. My apologies.

Opening up your decision making to a parameter like time with a wide variation leads to random optimizations. Stick to price-specific events like support and resistance. Things happen when they happen. You'll drive yourself nuts in backtesting by effectively trying to find out statistically when...

Well, I guess it didn't hurt his feelings, because he hasn't commented.

You probably thought it was deteriorating because I said "IndexArb is full of shit" because of their theory of how premium excursions affect future price direction. I was just getting started.

Thanks.

He is one of my favorite posters. I have come to depend on him to bring us links to useful news or sites that we might not otherwise stumble across. Today he created a thread linking to the IndexArb site because he found it useful for S&P dividend information. Surely you did not think he was...

What really counts is the dividend rate AND the payout ratio. There be many dragons out there paying more than they make. And BTW, IndexArb is full of shit about how the markets behave.

How did you get a copy of my business plan?

You are welcome. GFL finding anything useful in T&S.

IMO you have to snag the T&S at a one second rate, because (EasySignal at least) doesn't permit studies on a tick chart. That means there may be some accumulation, but not much in my experience. So then you have the choice of finding your other OB/OS events on that same one second chart, or...

FWIW, I think what I showed you, and what you want to do, are nearly worthless in practice. I just keep my code running because it is so beautiful and I keeping hoping it will be useful. Hasn't been for the five years I've been running it, haha. The problem you have is that your five minute...

I am not shilling for him. My one exposure to him was maybe ten years ago. At the time he was an "aw shucks" kinda guy, playing on his ag background. My guess is that he doesn't really give a shit about a fancy website. But of all the people I have heard speak over the years, he impressed me the...

You mean something like this? (Exaggerated for clarity.)

I am of the opinion that Mark Cook is the real deal. Went to a seminar where he spoke and no bullshit issued forth. I will never forget his opener. He looked pugnaciously at the audience and demanded loudly "What do you know?" To the stunned silence he answered his own question: "That's right...

Hahahahahahahaha! It's so stupid I hate to say it! If it is yielding significantly more with a reasonable and sustainable payout ratio than comparable stocks in its industry, or has a similar yield but lower payout than the others. Or if its price is significantly below the 50 day moving average...

Forgot to mention royalty trusts as well. Sometimes I wonder if the tax paperwork is worth it. But there are some good ones out there suitable for a poor boy. I also like as a dollar hedge a diversified European stock fund and gold.