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    backtesting is stupid

    Golly! Guess I'll quit doing it, then!
  2. A

    backtesting is stupid

    Alfobs, you are indeed a man of few words, a rarity here, with only sixteen posts in two years, and this only your third post this year. You packed a lot into it. Care to dialogue a bit? This thread is dead anyway.
  3. A

    backtesting is stupid

    666, is that IntradayBill's well-known auteur? Thanks for the reminder. I am so old that I have forgotten all the stuff I read years ago. I have tossed most of it, down to only twelve trading books on the shelf above my head. I keep them close while trading hoping for mental osmosis.
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    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    "build a linear regression and chart the residuals and observe how they are distributed" Are you suggesting anything more sophisticated than eyeballing the scattergram and calculating the variance?
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    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    "the risk of an unverified idea that grows larger and larger" I like that! I think I am trading one of those right now! As to Maestro, while I admire his facility, he is also facile, the only mathematical comedian I have ever encountered. He can make you believe anything. One is obliged to...
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    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    You have to understand that this is ET. In the nine years I have been here (I am an alias of an alias of an alias) I think I have ass-certained that no more than five people here are mathemagicians, and most of them are gone, except for Maestro and me. The vast majority therefore are innuminate...
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    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    Ya think? Mizzy is the quintessential ET chink dumbfuck. He just posted as his sorry-assed self this AM, asking how to place a VWAP order. This guy ZDN can optimize and chew gum at the same time.
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    The Documents by Jack Hershey

    Great. Because if it DOES work I can't wait for the big boys to start frustrating it. BTW, I changed my game on my own. Nobody will ever fuck up what I have because I don't brag about it. It's so subtle I don't even understand it myself.
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    The Documents by Jack Hershey

    It is especially apropos as old ugly and fat as I am.
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    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    Hahahahahahaha! I cheerfully BT and trade strategies with only 24 samples! You have waaaaay more than you need for sadistical significance. If you can believe in any such thing. So, here's what I do in a similar circumstance but for different reasons. Write code that conditions one on the...
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    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    What's the typical number of total trades, wins and losses, in a backtest?
  12. A

    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    Simple (stupid) approach. If you have Excel, create two columns, one for strat 1 and the other for strat2. For every day that the two strategies trade the same day, make profit or loss entries in the columns. Then run a correlation analysis. You then have a hard number for reference in the...
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    The Documents by Jack Hershey

    Oh, no, you don't get away with ambuggeruity. I am retired (actually unemployed), live in a single-wide, taking Social Security, and recently quit drinking, so money isn't "much of a concern" for me, either. I want to make enough money that I can quit chasing pussy, it will chase me. That's my...
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    How to tell if 2 strategies are independent?

    Do you have both fully coded up and backtested?
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    backtesting is stupid

    Bill, and other pro-backtesting respondents, I cannot recall such eloquence here in years! Well spoke, all! Bill, please pitch, I don't know what author you refer to. I got started on Babcock.
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    backtesting is stupid

    Yes, I did, most artfully done. You have real talent. Now all you need is better subjects. They probably also deleted my post praising your work. I am sure you will use it inappropriately going forward.
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    Price Action Traders

    I have no sympathy for that style of writing. In my industry that is called a "mystery story." My bread-and-butter system can be described in one short sentence. I suspect that most others' can, too.
  18. A

    backtesting is stupid

    Truth to tell, DT, if you send a fool down the backtesting path, he will be a dumber trader than if he traded intuitively. So not to worry in this case.
  19. A

    backtesting is stupid

    Will someone please answer this post the way I would? I am too busy reoptimizing a consistently profitable strategy to reply discourteously.
  20. A

    backtesting is stupid

    18, thank you for addressing me properly. I don't get much respect hereabouts for my divinity degree.
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