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You can use Metatrader to hedge your option trades on Interactive Brokers for instance.

Why the shock?

Of the options guys here, anyone dabbling with Metatrader brokers too? There seem to be a lot of them. Also anyone doing automated HFT on Metatrader?

Based on weekly data for 10 years, that's about 500 samples and indeed the index was up about 55% of the times. My up indicator triggered some 150 - 200 times and up times were about 60% in this case. Assuming probability really is 55%, if you test 200 times, you will get 60% up some 10% of...

About 5% more probability in one direction is also what I'm currently getting, hoping to improve the score but I don't think it's realistically possible to go much further, or the markets would notice. Also base on my calculations there's about 90% confidence that that 5% edge is systematic...

The problem with this approach is that it usually has a worse Sharpe ratio than just buying the asset. When the asset goes up you make money on the sell-put position but not as much as you would have made by holding the underlier. And every now and then the underlier drops so sharply that your...

Leaving alone high frequency trading which by definition is predicting market direction with nearly 100% accuracy, anyone here managed to do it? I see posts here of guys selling naked puts and sometimes making a profit. Based on my backtests with such strategies, the market always beats me by a...

Thinking about it, I'm gonna open source my options backtester afterall. For the guys that don't know programming, they could still download the already built application and run it but I guess it wouldn't be of much use to backtest some precoded strategies - which as I pointed out earlier in...

Well they would mean something if you tested a system that's supposed to produce a winning probability of say 98 - 99%. Perhaps HFT in some niche areas can reach that. Either way I'm still wrapping my head around the gambler's fallacy and the Monte-Carlo casino situation...

Prepare to be baffled! :) If a trading system loses by doing buys, doing the reverse (i.e. selling) IS NOT going to win! Why? Because of the spread. Think the fair value in terms of probability was 50%, with bids at 45% and asks as 55%. If you buy @ ask, you'll lose 5% on average. If you do...

My experience with backtesting is that nothing works.. or everything works, depending on how you view it. When you start from established theory like Black-Scholes and similar, there is a wealth of techniques in derivatives trading with a mathematical fundamentals, you'll notice that they do...

W.T.F?!! He doesn't even wear some straps in case he slips off the couch? :| Youtube link:

Actually Nobel prizes were won precisely for coming up with that :) That's why I recommend learning and understanding the current foundation before starting experimenting on your own, or else you'll discover on your own time (expense) that "two years in the lab are saving you two weeks in the...

I don't recall at the moment the exact term but "random process" and "no fucking clue" are different terms. If you throw a coin, you can't predict what the next toss will produce (head or tail) but you know if you throw it 100 times, you'll get head approximately 50 times. If you throw it 1000...

The market is random but not unpredictable, meaning there's a process which drives the random outcomes. When you backtest you're trying to identify that process. As long as the *process* is deterministic (and they usually are to a high degree), you can make money. That's the whole idea behind...

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When you wonder why they found the assassins of Philip. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_II_of_Macedon The bodyguards liked their job. Don't fuck with them.

More on the latter, I also wanna fire a "Pistol Carpați Md. 1974". Not all guys here are Americans with free access to a shooting range, not that it matters.

The latter.

Think a research desk based in Saudi Arabia or worst case, in China.