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I'm not suggesting reversion strategy by any means. I'm thinking the opposite actually.

Here is todays open +- the mean of .16. Once price exceeds that there is something like a 50% chance that it will go on to be a big move and therefore a 50% chance that it will fall within the big move distribution. The lines below it contain the bulk of the larger moves observed over the...

This is the distribution of the larger move of the day. Ranges charted as below: 4.00 0.01 0.22 5.00 0.22 0.43 6.00 0.43 0.65 7.00 0.65 0.86 8.00 0.86 1.07 9.00 1.07 1.28 10.00 1.28 1.50 11.00 1.50 1.71 12.00 1.71 1.92 13.00 1.92 2.13 14.00 2.13 2.35 15.00 2.35 2.56 16.00 2.56...

The avg is .28 but as you can see it is heavily skewed to the 0 end of things. This means that a small move from the open has a suprising amount of signifigance. It also definitely confirms what MF says about the open range being the high or low of the day more frequently than a random %...

SPY last 2000 days. Column on the left shows distance moved from the open. Column on the right shows the % of smaller moves it has exceeded. If you are selecting an A level to use to establish bias you could make it tighter than is indicated by the 2 standard deviation figure. As...

Some random stuff I was playing with today. I've been looking a lot at the average distance traveled away from the open in both directions. Line 1 is the average of the smaller of the two distances over the last 2000 trading days. Line 2 is the average + 2 standard deviations, meaning...

Why? Are they now in the business of diagnosing awesomeness?

Fwiw I ran some quick tests and found only a .14 correlation between volume and range increase. That wouldn't even be considered a weak correlation. Gonna test more later to see if it increases directional properties at all. I haven'tfound range or pivot contraction to have any predictive...

Yes AUD/USD. Shorted below yesterdays low. Failed reversal pattern.

Short at 1.0243

Maverick out of curiousity have you ever bothered to read Al Brooks book? I'm combining that style with ACD for actual trades. Do you have any resources you like on how to learn to enter and manage positions, aside from ACD?

I don't post a ton because I don't have much of value to contribute. I look foward to reading your posts in this thread, please continue talking to yourself. It is very educational.

Well AUD/USD is breaking down already for the month. If it gives a good price action entry on the daily chart I will initiate a short position. The breakdown only gives a bias. I'm not going to post trade size because it doesn't matter. (it is small though lol). Too many people on this...

I'm using gnumeric. Its a free spreadsheet program with a lot more stat capabilities than excel. I think you are wrong on the pivot thing. Pivot range = the regular pivot point + and - the difference between the pp and the midpoint of the day. Thats all I've done so far. I'm not...

Sorry for all the posts but got one more. I forgot earlier to plot the down values too. You can see the difference in plotting off the open vs the open range. The A value is way down somewhere off the chart, while calculating this way gave us a bullish bias pretty early in the day as all...

I also ran a test comparing pivot range size to the days range. There was absolutely no predictive value. It has an R value of 0.006 which means it couldn't be any closer to random if you made up the data.

I think this is more interesting. The first 2 lines close together are the 95% confidence interval of the average of the noise level over the last year of trading. The next line up is 1 standard deviation. The one above that is 2 standard deviations. That means that those bands will contain...

Just for kicks here is NEM with the noise level plotted for today. BTW I've been looking at VWAP as a filter and it seems to be very useful, as it should considering how many high volume players look at it.

They are drawn off the open. I've plotted a bunch of A levels on top of noise bands and they are so close I really doubt it matters. I think of them more as A levels that I know how to calculate and can write a formula for than anything else. Regarding volatility, I've noticed days when the...

This is a graph of noise/vs ATR for the last 5 years of weekly data on AUD/USD. Stop losses need to be just large enough to allow for expected noise and if noise is relatively the same and range increases it should increase our profitability.