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Fair enough...I disagree but I'm not going to argue over semantics. There are not two rounds in this example. What exactly do you think has a 16% chance of happening? Seriously, if you are going to act like a know-it-all its best that you get your shit straight first. Probability that the...

There is no analogy between the Monty Hall problem and the market. In order for such an analogy to exist you would need someone with god-like powers to remove a losing choice from consideration. If that did indeed happen (perhaps inside knowledge) then the answer to the question would remain...

[/B]Actually, that's not what you said, I suggest you re-read what you actually said. The interview question you gave in your first post has nothing to do with the markets or stocks. You are given an hypothetical problem and asked if you want to stay with original your choice. Your answer...

Wow, stunning logic. So according to you, after removing one cup that does not contain the coin, if you stick with your original guess you have a 1/3 chance of being right but if you switch the other remaining cup you have a 1/2 (50/50) chance of being right? Lets see, 1/3+1/2 != 1...

This has nothing to do with statistics, its a question of probability. And judging by your refusal to make the correct decision to switch and your incorrect calculations above (0.16???) I'd say you still don't get it. Try reading the Wiki page previously linked.

A successful track record is not proof of a successful system but a track record of failure is an excellent predictor that a system is not successful. Thus there is a legitimate reason for wanting to see a track record, not because it guarantees success but because it filters out some (but...

Yes, there are options on futures. The contract holds value because its cash settled if you hold it until expiration. Read all the "quick links" at the bottom of this page: http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/equity/emini-russell2000.html

You can't, not with futures. If you want to limit your risk then you can always involve other products (options) You make or lose money. The farmer situation is different. If the farmer has a field of corn growing and wants to lock in the current market price he sells a future corn contract...

C2 System Details: Kingdom Capital Covered Call Fund Trades 102 Profitable 44 Losses 58 Win % 43.1% Cumu $ ($12,480) after typical commission ($23,306)

With futures there is no chain - there is no strike price. Futures have a settlement date but for short-term traders its of little consequence (most traders are on to the next contract before the settlement date, there is a period where both contracts overlap) Lets say you buy 1 ER2...

So you understand how options work but you dont understand futures? What don't you understand? I don't get the part about needing to see a chart to learn about it but CME's site has delayed charts, check it out (lots of good stuff about emini futures there too)...

Not much of a self-starter, are you? Did you even try to find the answer for yourself before asking to be spoonfed? Try google.

Good luck with that.

Anybody who has an idea like that who would not bet their own money on it is a fool. A 90% win rate with 1:1 R/R? Its practically the holy grail. And you aren't going to tell us what you did? Nice....

Do let us know what you come up with. I don't believe what you are asking for exists and if it does someone sure isnt going to hand it over to you on a silver platter just for asking.

Yes except you are missing the simple fact that you cannot find anything that will double your money with only a 10% chance of losing it. If you are willing to accept a 50% chance of losing it then there are plenty of ways to meet your double or nothing requirements. Someone with...

Holy crap that is funny! OP, don't you think if such a risk/reward opportunity was available everyone would be all over it?

The recent (three I believe) problems with losing overnight positions is a serious. I don't care if its MBT's fault or Penson's fault - I am not Penson's customer, I am MBT's - MBT needs to get their shit together and find a new clearing firm if Penson can't do the job. One of the three...

I think I see the problem here, its a basic math issue: If in year 1 you make 25% and then in year 2 you lose 25% you are not back to break-even, you are below where you started (lost 6.25%) You can't just add up all the yearly gains/losses because that assumes you start each year again...

Can you give a specific example: what was the bid/ask when you placed your (market/limit) order and what were you filled at? What instrument are you trading and what date/time? During quiet times when I place a non-marketable limit order I see my order go into the queue. When I place a...