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and here are your actions :D

here is the distribution curve

Here are few charts of random generated market data

ProfLogic, I did not mean to offend you. I think you misunderstood my statement. I have never doubted that there are talented traders who can use their knowledge and experience to their advantage. I was trying to illustrate the phenomenon that was brought up by the original poster. If I some how...

Yep

Of course it does! Any real time market info should influence our decision making process! However, using existing price "patterns" (like trends) to anticipate the future price behavior is naïve.

I completely agree with this statement! Yes, I too believe that developing of sensible reaction to the market events is the key to success. I just hate when people attribute it to completely iralavent things (like watching trend). Trading markets successfully is an art form. There is a big...

Each individual can develop the set of rules that he/she is happy with in terms of succeeding in any type of intellectual activities. I do not deny at all the psychological importance of having a “plan” or “set of rules” or set of moral believes etc. Many people would live by religious...

It’s not about "objectively defining the "Trend"; it's about believing that it has something to do with the upcoming events. No matter how you define things they objectively exist. You might say “I have noticed that if I click on my mouse with my middle finger (instead of my index finger)...

A wise-man was seated in silent prayer, When a stranger came by and rested there. The stranger was haggard and his clothes were all torn, And he spoke to the wise-man in a voice all forlorn. "Which road do I take to get serene above all, For wherever I go I hit splat into a wall?" The...

No matter how do you define the “TREND” the implications of your definition with regards to trading are the same. You want to guess as accurate as possible based on the observed data whether the market will go up or down. So what ever you used to define the trend will lead to two...

In October S&P was at 1580 and in January it fell down to 1260. In less than 3 months! Do the math.

Sorry, you are right, of course. My apologies. :)

It is very unusual to meet an intelligent person here on ET, so rare! I like the way you think and express your self. Very refreshing.

Yes, relying on the reversion to the mean is a very dangerous game. The reason, of course, is that you are relying on the average outcome but at the same time you are forced to deal with a particular run of the random walk. The remedy to it is chopping the fat tail with options or running...

... When I refer to random, I am implicitly referring to random in the gaussian sense... You would be surprised how close the Markets are to the Gaussian distribution. If you divide the price of S&P by the daily true range you will get a precise bell curve, not a power law distribution. In...

Yes, that is the one! Thank you so much!

So are illusions!

Hey, Thunder, good to see you too! You are the only guy here on ET who makes me laugh. Your sense of humor is ranked number 1 in my books. I will find for you an interesting article that deals with “Zero Intelligence Trading”. This article puts our egocentric point of view on how much really...

I am glad to be back. It was hard for me these two years. I have spent most of this time in the hospital (almost checked out of this life). But I am much better these days, thank you for remembering me. The super computers and the wall of monitors are still there. Our average performance for the...