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I think I understand you better now.

Of course I do! I doubt my self regularly! :D It does not preclude me though from expressing my point of view.

So, would it be safe to say that there is a possibility that markets following (like gravity or electricity) some objective laws that do not depend on how traders play it?

An interesting statement. What you are saying is that your understanding of markets, electricity and gravity is the only one that makes sense. Well, if we were living in 14th century you would be probably frying me on the fire for suggesting that the Earth might be round! There is a whole school...

Very well said!!

Children! Be nice to each other!

I would like to ask you guys not to get personal. It’s just a theoretical discussion that gives everyone a chance to express the opinion on a very interesting subject (at least to me it is very interesting). There are unlimited amount of successful strategies to trade the markets. As in chess...

This might help to understand where I am coming from. I wrote this short article for one of my university lectures.

You, guys really need to read “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life” - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It will put a lot of thing in perspective. As far as your two points, you have no idea how wrong you are. But before you argue more please read this book, it...

It was a simple question. Do you believe that trends exist in randomly generated price series? Yes or NO, that is all I need to know.

Those could be modeled as well. Nice applet, I had one of those as well; could not find it. As I said, it is very rare to find someone here who really understands the subject.

BTW, those green and blue lines are the RSI tops and bottoms. I was testing someone's new formula for RSI oscillator. Worked pretty good. Till it blew up and lost everything it made. Which just proved my point. :cool:

This one was indeed! :D I'll try to find more "happy" ones.

here is one of them

Of course. I have tones of those somewhere. I just need to find them.

Holly, Jack, you wrote a book! However, can you please tell me? Do you believe that trends exist in purely random generated time price series?

I know, I know... I just found the chart in my archives. When I find the tick-by-tick random S&P chart I'll post it. I did it many times and that is how I test all the "profitable systems" that people claim time-to-time.

The Mandelbrot’s book “Miss-Behavior of markets” is one of my favorites! Although I disagree with his log-normal distribution conclusion, it is a good read! He missed the scale part of it big time.

Noticed the Eliot waves? Or may be Fibonacci cycles?

And if you are tired of trying to spot a trend just relax and enjoy the random movements