Search results

I live in Canada. I think it's the best country in the world. Yes, it gets a bit depressing in the winter, but the summers are phenomenal! If you have a condo (house) in Florida and can spend Dec - Apr there you will get the perfect life! Just Ontario alone has 70,000 lakes that have names and...

Very Good! You are digging in the right direction! There is a reward for you in the end, I promise! Cheers, MAESTRO

Since a pixel is not a lenear measure of resolution the formula should be cost/squareroot(pixels) :cool: I know a thing or two about monitors :D Cheers, MAESTRO

Not entirely true. there are many ways to add "new information" to a decision making process to increase the Requisite Variety of a system. Cheers, MAESTRO

Not necessarily. Consider the following imaginary case. A system measures the time (speed) with which a buy or a sell orders are filled. Let's assume a system places the buy order at the bid and the sell order at the ask. Then the timing to fill the order is measured and the next order to buy or...

None of the above. You need to create a dependency of the trade's outcome to the next trade entry to enjoy Bayes's methods. If the trades do not have a feed back or "memory" it would not work. One needs to attenuate the system's variety (W.R. Ashby) to improve it's decision making ability...

Just consider a simple example of tossing a biased coin. 65% probability of tails and 35% probability of heads. If you had n consecutive heads the probability of the next toss being a tail or head is still 65/35. Therefore, there is no advantage of "waiting". The only help is to increase the...

I am sorry, but none of you above are correct what so ever. The solution is in Bayes' theorem and the most vivid illustration of it is presented via the Monty Hall paradox. Please educate yourself. MAESTRO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_

"For much of my life there was no place where the things I wanted to investigate were of interest to anyone" Benoit Mandelbrot

That is exactly what he is trying to say - "making sound economic predictions" is a fool's game! Cheers, MAESTRO

As in anything else in trading one cannot treat a theory literally. “Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness” are the books that have outlined a point of view that prompted me personally to research certain areas of options theory that I thought were researched by others to death. I...

By definition the 2STD OTM Long Call gives you the best R/R ratio. However, there is no static option construct that would give you what you would like to have. Only dynamic synthetics with super replicate abilities could be used to capture the current situation reliably.

I have been to Chernobyl. I know how bad it is right now in Japan. I am praying for those lost souls who probably were not even informed what they should expect. I have seen hundreds of Russian soldiers died horrible death a few weeks after they were doing the same thing - trying to dump water...

OK, I'll help you. I have actually done the calculations once (just for fun). If you do what you have suggested with 2 STD OTM long options you have a shot there. The non-linearity of the payoffs are potentially suitable for the exponential averaging. However, it only works when the theta is not...

Unfortunately, the OP has a very limited and largely wrong understanding of martingales. On top of that this discussion has started from the wrong point; it is essential to establish the nature of the underlying process first and only then one could possibly apply the notions such as...

look at $EVZ - multi-month low P.S. Absolutely perfect time to buy straddles/strangles Cheers, MAESTRO

Don't get me started! :D Cheers MAESTRO

Good, honest answer! You have the right attitude, you might be able to figure this out after all. I can only give you one clue. I suppose it won't hurt. "KURTOSIS" If somebody gave me this clue in 1993 it would have saved me 5 years of aggravations! So here is your Christmas present! Merry...

Actually, there is a third way! It's called "Mathematical Psychology". No TA, no FA just "hearding" and "flocking" and the methods that capture behavioral patterns without using prices or news. I have been doing this for the last 15 years and to me it is the only way to trade. Cheers, MAESTRO

Everyone has to pay their dues first! I did not spend 20 years figuring this out so that I can hand the "Holy Grail" on a silver platter to someone who might even not being able to appreciate or understand it! The faster the OP understands that there is no freebies in trading the better! Do not...