Search results

Sorry, I didn't realize you are British. Anyway here in the USA, there are two big multi-state lotteries and you can calculate the break-even jackpot (bejp) of each. For example the bejp of the MegaMillions lottery, ignoring taxes and the lumpsum-versus-annuity nonsense, is $143,739,648 (based...

Great post. Unfortunately I do not have the proof you seek. My conclusion is empirical. :(

PF = pW/qL = .3W/.7L >= 2 : W >~ 5L SPS >~ .3*5-.7 = .8 < 1 Looks like SPS is your bottomline factor. Lol

SPS(C) = 1.221 actually. Despite the low winrate, the payoff makes the system best of the three. Would you refuse to play one of the multi-state lotteries even if the jackpot reached a billion dollars? Lol

That's not the general case, just the special case of exactly two outcomes (only one win amount and only one loss amount). For the general case of multiple outcomes, I prefer the formula I wrote (k*W) using the exact value for k, because the Kelly approximation (= p/|L| - q/W) is always an...

System Performance Score

SPS == k*W k(A) = .55/407 - .45/433 = .0003121 SPS(A) = k(A)*433 = 0.135 k(B) = .10/50 - .90/1000 = .0011 SPS(B) = k(B)*1000 = 1.1 System B is much more attractive.

People smarter than you, so don't worry your empty little head about it. We got this.

+10 :cool:

Still incredible how Google-impaired so many reichturds are in this forum. Evidently the tendency for lenient sentencing for anti-Asian crimes is very old in the USA ... http://www.asian-nation.org/racism.shtml http://colorlines.com/archives/2009/06/david_kaos_murder_shows_antias.html...

When something happens with such frequency that even a celebrity is guilty of it, that's the exact opposite of a rare event. Only you would think otherwise. Why don't you ask the Asian American community what they think of such crimes? By your way of thinking, nobody should ever worry...

Hard to see how you passed the bar exam if you don't realize that nobody is talking about "thought crime". Hate crime legislation is aimed at actions, not thoughts. No surprise that you would consider Marky Mark's evil acts to be "the one example maybe ever" of White on Asian crime. How odd...

Apparently it's often not such a crime when the perp is White and the victim isn't. In 1988 a teenaged punkass racist sack of dogshit named Mark Wahlberg launched an unprovoked attack on an Asian American business owner, costing him one of his eyes. Actually this was Wahlberg's second attack...

Are you kidding? TA is tested all the time; it's called backtesting. That's how we measure the worth of a trading system whether it's TA-based or has any other basis. I've even posted a thread called "System Performance Score" detailing how best to compare different trading systems based on...

Yes but as I painstakingly pointed out, there are different levels of prediction. The unadorned word "prediction" too often conjures up images of mystics forecasting unlikely events ala supermarket tabloids with their annual top-20 "psychic forecasts" for the new year or whatever. But we...

No problem seeing the exact probabilities, but if your real point is the difficulty of finding an exploitable edge in that situation, I fully agree. Las Vegas, maybe. Can't say for sure, I haven't been there in over a decade. :p

If I say "the sun will rise tomorrow morning", is that a prediction? If every statement about the future is a prediction, I'd like to introduce two new terms. A sure thing is a statement about the future with a certainty of occurrence. "The sun will rise tomorrow" is a sure thing. "If...

Exactly. It's the same silly argument against TA. "If TA works, why aren't we all rich?". As if those with TA that works have an obligation to share it with every mook they never heard of. Next.

Then why ask the question, when you already have your answer? More to the point, why post such a thread in the Automated Trading forum, unless you're trying to pick a fight?

In order to be a winner, you have to think like a winner. Deliberately thinking like a loser and then trying to "reverse" it to come up with a winning system strikes me as a waste of time at best. Architects don't come up with prize-winning houses by dreaming up the worst houses imaginable...