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Yes, surf, despite the random process, you really are in a trend. Here's the proof: Your first bet: $0 Toss # 1: heads ; Total win: $ 0 ; Your next bet: $0 Toss # 2: heads ; Total win: $ 0 ; Your next bet: $0 Toss # 3: heads ; Total win: $ 0 ; Your next bet: $2 on heads Toss # 4: heads ...

No, the key word is existence. According to you, trends don't even exist in stock markets so by your declaration, they obviously aren't exploitable. Nonexistent things can't be exploited. Again, care to revise your definition...

How could it be obvious when you've declared nonexistent something that everyone else I know says exists? So by your definition, a random process cannot generate trends, which flies in the face of actual evidence. Given your own repeated example, ten heads in a row is a trend. Just because...

Nowhere in that post is there a definition of trend, much less a suggested procedure for quantifying it. You seem to be incapable of answering the most rudimentary questions. Goodbye.

Before you can logically declare something nonexistent, you must precisely define it so your audience knows exactly what you're talking about and can point out any flaws in your logic. For example, if I declare "dragons don't exist" and someone else displays pictures, videos and even live...

Trends. Duh! Have you been paying any attention at all? Btw animal tracks don't always lead to the animal. If the animal is smart enough to backtrack or to enter a stream for a while, it can throw hunters off its trail. Not all hunts are successful, but enough are to keep hunters trying time...

“Why should we look to the past in order to prepare for the future? Because there is nowhere else to look.” -- James Burke According to surflogic, it is impossible for a hunter to use footprints (aka remnants of the past) to successfully track game (aka future targets). Of course, in reality...

.02*max[ 0, TLNW ]

Since you're going there, it's you, not u.

Exactly. If IBM had made even the modestly intelligent decision to develop their own DOS in-house like Apple did, there would have been no IBM clones and almost nobody would've ever heard of Bill Gates or Microsoft. Amazing how a single decision can change an entire industry. That is luck in a...

What's hilarious is that position sizing has been distilled down into a science, and nowhere near as complicated as rocket science. These academics are generally clueless about something that can be figured out by almost any competent sophomore engineering student.

He was a great stock picker. You don't die a multi-millionaire by being a lousy or even a mediocre stock picker. Yes he was probably more investor than trader but let's not pretend like he just got lucky with his portfolio. He obviously knew what to do for the most part.

These kinds of stories crack me up. The title implies that he became a multi-millionaire by being unusually frugal. As if. The real reason (great stock picking) is barely given half a sentence, because what else is the writer going to say? The old man's trading secrets? Of course not. So let's...

Oy. I have no idea where you get these numbers from. But this is personally why I avoid stops and targets. They give the illusion that you can pinpoint your wins and losses when in reality you can't. Trading isn't a casino game; there are no fixed probabilities and no fixed payoffs. But there...

You're assuming a fiction. Since when is any real trade a 100% win or loss? That's betting in a fixed scenario, not trading. Worse, since you're assuming the probabilities of a coin flip, you have no advantage and therefore no reason to bet. The Kelly fraction in your example is 0. IOW don't...

Your reasoning is that you win or lose 100% of your trades, which is course pure fiction. This is trading, not casino betting. If the 2% falls below your Kelly fraction (whatever that is, and which can only be determined empirically for a trading system), then your account will increase, not...

Now they're just milking it. I wonder how many cold cases California and other jurisdictions hope to clear by placing them all on Robert Durst. http://www.wcnc.com/story/news/local/2015/03/18/possible-connection-between-robert-durst-charlotte-woman/24991999/

I found his wanted poster. :D

Nothing wrong with that, although I'm sure that's a big part of the fascination with this case. Not that many 1%er serial killers in the books AFAIK. But murderer or not, it is hard to sympathize with somebody who shoplifts whilst driving around with more cash in the trunk of his car than most...

Yes I saw that. Very amusing. They say no publicity is bad publicity if you're in showbiz but I'd bet Fred isn't thrilled to have his name associated with the Bobby Durst circus. Speaking of which, what do you think of New Orleans holding up the extradition so they can get their own bite of...