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i'll go a step further. retail trading is more than a job. it is a profession. or it SHOULD be, and those who treat it as such are much more likely to be in the small group that makes a living out of it. it is one where the perceived costs of entry are swimmingly low - a computer, an...

i have been positioning into oil for the last week. stop below the lows. i will scale out on strength if yer JUST looking at current month, or spot, you need to look at spread and is it contango, backwardated etc. that will tell u what traders and HEDGERs think also, look at COT...

this type of question (and answer) merely sets one up to limit themselves. i don't care what some traders think is reasonable or not i trade my setups. i can be reasonably sure that if i thought X% was the most i could reasonably make that this would affect my trading . it will...

niederhoffer? aka blowout king

"Yes every dollar made in the stock market has to come from somebody else’s pockets" volente et al seem to have difficulty with the fact that when ANY asset increases in value (and you own it) your wealth increases. it's not "magic" as he says. if you don't SELL the asset, the money...

stock trading is an activity not a system. it is somewhat "weird" (to use technical jargon) to say that stock trading is or isn't zero sum. i know what u mean. i said it several posts ago, that EFFECTIVELY speaking, for short term traders (vs. investors) trading ANY asset may seem to be...

"But are you talking about actual statistical tests or simple bookkeeping comparisons" actual statistical tests. in some cases, n= 500 to 1000 for some setups i have tested the fact that so many people just automatically trade ES vs YM without first researching which works better for...

JUST based on spread alone, the YM wins 10 YM ticks = 4 ES ticks so, if u are scalping - YM much better second of all, i have very precise gap methodology, but even discounting all that - YM is more likely to fill a gap than ES third, ES is literally infected with frenetic...

i use statistics all the time in my TA i trade index futures (scalping mostly) i keep track of every setups performance, positive expectancy, %age winning trades, etc. what i found really interesting in developing setups is how (relatively) small changes in target and stop settings can...

dood. the markets "climb a wall of worry" i can't recall any bull market that didn't have all sorts of scary stuff going on in the background

among many, the most obvious volente fallacy, is that if you don't REALIZE your wealth in dollars, it is not real. this goes against every economic principle. if you own a house, a hemicuda, 5000 ounces of gold, and 1000 shares of MO, you can measure your wealth obviously, it is easier...

"After the abolishment of the Gold Standard it is very hard to define wealth any longer." to an extent. completely irrelevant to the issue, but true. wealth is everything you own. your house, your car, your gold bullion, your stamp collection, your clothes, etc. etc. MOST items are...

"Defining profits and losses relative to some common benchmark of fundamental value is the most sensible thing to do in the case of stock trading and this immediately implies the game is zero sum." fine. then quote me where this professor says the stock market is zero sum i'll stand by...

the below is 100% irrelevant to the issue of zero sum also, the term "positive sum" is also irrelevant this is a binary thing. either a system is zero sum, or it isn't. whether or not a buyer and seller can both benefit is 100% irrelevant to the issue. zero sum is a description of a...

it's already reached a conclusion there are just some that don't understand math, or game theory and refuse to admit the truth refusal to admit 1+1=2 does not mean there is valid disagreement that 1+1=2 game theory was invented to describe a specific sort of system. the stock market...

Infernal Affairs is one of my alltime favorite actions flix. it is the movie they "based" The Departed Upon. I haven't seen The Departed yet. American remakes of Asian flix GENERALLY leave me cold, although the remake of Dark Water was excellent. If you have not yet seen INFERNAL...

i am most definitely not predicting a correction a correction can happen at any time. that's why u have stops

it's also a matter of timeframe guys this rally i am referring to started in late '02. i am not talking about the last day, week, month, etc. overlay the following charts with a common scale DJIA S&P 500 S&P 500 EWI RUSSELL TRANSPORTS UTILITIES NASDAQ COMPOSITE AMEX COMPOSITE...

"So, only when we trade real things like stocks or houses wealth can be created or lost and we have a non zero sum, but when we trade agreements without the actual transfer of the real thing wealth cannot be created and we have a zero sum? Agreements then have their own price independent of the...

BINGO! and the most extreme market moves are frequently fueled by lots of traders being absolutely certain they are gonna be right, holding on until max pain, getting stopped out/margin called and fueling a massive move the biggest moves are usually because too many people got on the wrong...