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It's very difficult to "eyeball" customers for retail, restaurants, etc. Even if the place is packed, you don't know if the customers are trading down and not buying an appetizer and maybe they are buying water instead of a drink. Or only buying one beer with dinner instead of two. Little...

Sometimes you can win just by being the best looking turd in the bowl. When I look around, you have...... EU: Still hasn't recapped their banks. High unemployment and a large welfare class. Not to mention a fragmented union that is showing significant signs of collapse, and in all...

If this was really about stealing dirty money from Russia, then why would they seize assets from accounts less than 100k?

There is a big difference between a 10% overnight seizure, and a "slow drip" from inflation. I can profit from the latter more easily than the former.

I feel like this market will beat a few more perma-bears into submission and before it tuns really ugly

Even if a gold bug want to keep their gold, this could be a good rebalance point to add to the position or take profits.

It's impossible to know for sure. I would take it to mean he literally bought gold, denominated in euros at a brokerage where he held euros.

He's betting Gold will go up more versus EUR than it will go up versus USD. He may think gold is going up, and both USD and EUR are going down relative to gold, but EUR will be weaker than USD.

Bingo. He's expecting gold to appreciate more against EUR than the USD in all likelihood. I would suspect he anticipate that the EU will eventually have to join into the currency depreciation game. I believe he's right.

Of course markets are correlated, however those correlations change dramatically over time. It depends upon which time frame you're looking at in addition to which asset classes you're covering. US Treasuries and the S&P on a monthly time frame are anywhere from +1 to -1 and everywhere in...

Agreed. I'm not advocating that his asset allocation strategy does the heavy lifting for his hedge. I guess to summarize, I would advocate that his overall portfolio is such that it provides a positive, real return, but is stable in the event of a crisis ala 08. The last thing he needs if...

Fair enough.... I'll leave the complicated, option hedging strategies to you. That's your arena for sure. I just wanted to throw my $.02 because I think it's important for someone to take their income source into the equation of how they balance their portfolio. Some of the long term...

Yes, I can read too. So, where does it say his entire portfolio will be wiped out? I get it. As crude falls, his work dries up. If it goes below a certain price threshold, he may not have any work. That doesn't mean his entire portfolio is wiped out unless he is in a capital intensive...

I was using gold as an example of a hedge through asset allocation, not that he needs to hold 20% gold. That post wasn't even in response to you it was to ogarbitrage. Also, maybe I missed something but how do you know he loses his entire portfolio is wiped away by a crude decline? He...

I would argue that growing his entire portfolio is the #1 goal and hedging fits well within that. He can accomplish some of that hedging, simply by his asset allocation. I would argue that someone holding say 20% of their assets in gold is hedging, even though they aren't using a...

My point is that I would want to invest 90% of my assets in a portfolio that is going to make a positive return regardless of where crude goes. Then with 10%, of his monthly net cashflow, he can buy insurance for a huge decline in crude. I certainly wouldn't want to spend dollar for...

Ok, I'm a total Noob when it comes to creative hedging ala atticus and probably others here, but I know a lot about asset allocation and if I'm you, here's what I would do..... I would allocate my investable portfolio, along with any new monies that you are receiving during the oil boom...

This is exactly what I was thinking.

I highly recommend Harry Dent's book "The Great Depression Ahead". He makes some pretty outlandish claims at times, and I don't pay any attention to his price targets, but he has some very good explanations of demographics and how they forecast price cycles, such as deleveragings, inflation...

This thread is already proving why we can't have nice things on ET.