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What overbought condition on the daily? Not sure what you're looking at. On my ES daily chart, RSI is presently 47.71 -- right in dead center between overbought (>70) and oversold (<30). Are you looking at some other overbought/oversold indicator (e.g., CCI)? On my charts, RSI is oversold on...

It's a divergence. A bullish grail occurs when the price makes a low with the RSI in oversold territory (<30), then makes a lower low with the RSI higher (>30). A bearish grail occurs when the price makes a high with the RSI in overbought territory (>70), then makes a higher high with the RSI...

And I just found my perfect entrypoint (I hope) at 1468.25 just before the close. Went long and carrying into AH. Should be interesting. I guess all my earlier agonizing about 2- vs 3-point stops turned out to be pretty moot. Wonder if the talking heads were looking at the charts I...

Thanks. I laid out the methodology here yesterday, and it's so simple even a caveman could do it. :D

I am still flat (unfortunately), but for anyone who isn't, short-term target price is now 1478.75. Multi-day target remains 1515.50. I hope to be in on that action soon, but this is not a comfortable place to re-enter. EDIT: Wow, 1478.75 hit right to the tick. Sadly I was not in play...

Three-wave retracement right on the money here: A=1477.50 B=1474.00 C=1476.00 Calculated D target=1472.50 Actual D=1472.75 Amazing, isn't it? In hindsight, I added on at B but D would have been 1.5 points better. (So shoot me.) :) 1472.75 has now been tested twice (12:57 and...

Textbook 50% retracement there, nice entrypoint for anyone who wasn't already long. Next AB=CD stop is 1477.25. I would not be surprised by another partial retracement from there, which would represent another long entry opportunity IMHO. EDIT: Did I nail that puppy to the tick, or what...

It was not to be. Descending micro-channel violated to the upside, so 1468.75 target is now invalidated. I declare the micro-trend to have now changed from short to long, and will be looking to get long on any pullback. It's nice when the market acts according to your plan, but it doesn't...

Yeah! Come to pappa! :) EDIT: Calculated AB=CD target for this current micro-down-move is 1468.75. That's definitely in my buy zone.

Back up at the top of the descending micro-channel at 1473.25. Should be heading a bit lower from there, although I suspect this downmove is running out of steam. I'm waiting to see some divergences before I go long. BTW, a price channel is, by definition, a series of AB = CD moves. in the...

Good morning, all! I went short at 1475.75 with a 1-point stop. This is not a homerun attempt: my profit target on this one is a modest 1471 (4.75 points), at which point I'll be looking to go long for the home run. Although countertrend from a daily perspective, I decided to go short...

Yup, I definitely trailed too tight, and missing the last part of the move Friday was my fault.

Not terrifying as a trader. Terrifying as an investor...and particularly terrifying to contemplate the effects it might have on the overall economy. As a trader, it would be exciting as hell. But some of us actually have business interests and a life beyond of trading. And loss of 50% of...

Agreed. But he who does not learn from history is destined to repeat it.

I'm not sure that "nice" is the right word. Frankly, I find the monthly chart terrifying. But better to be prepared than surprised.

Gosh, do you think they'll let you on the airplane without shorts? Those Homeland Security folks have no sense of humor at all. When you said you were going to Italy to buy a new wardrobe, I had no idea it had gotten so bad that you had no shorts. Have a great trip. We'll try to hold down...

One more chart to finish up on my weekend research...and I promise this is the last one, cross my heart and hope to die. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1582174> This, for those who have never looked at one, is called a "point and figure" chart. They are...

Now, the monthly ES chart has time-adjusted prices, which makes them perhaps a little suspect. So let's look at the S&P cash using the same methodology. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1582164> The spooz clearly shows a 2007 peak that is exactly the same as...

Now for the scary stuff... Mvoing to the monthly chart, I find this a real eye-opener. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1582151> Look at the RSI in overbought territory. Also note the last time it was in this territory: early 1999. This was followed by a...

Now moving to the weekly chart, with longer term projections to 1609.50 and 1638.00. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1582149> Also note the earlier AB=CD projection dating from 06/16/2006 when ES was at 1280 predicting a run-up to 1580 (300 points) . The...