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Anybody know what all that volatility was all about? Some news item? EDIT: Oh I see...some fed stuff.

Ya think? :) :) :)

1562.50 here just kissed a rising trendline dating back from the swing low of 9/25. (15-min chart.) Looking for reversal confirmation to go long here. Starting to look like there may be strong buying pressure at 1562.50. I've got a reversal bar on the 5-min, not yet on the 15-min. I'm...

Good job!

If it makes you feel any better, I've closed my long with a 2-tick loss. Too early. Now flat. EDIT: I'd love to see a pullback here to 1563, as it would put us right on my 15-minute upward trendline and be a nice low-risk long entry. No guarantees that will happen, of course, but it would be...

Now long from 1565.25 with close stop. This is the position I'd love to be able to hold into the close, but we'll see what happens. Still haven't ruled out a fill-the-gap pullback (in which case my long will stop out for a small loss).

Out at 1565.25 for +2.75. My stop was 3 ticks on this trade. Presently on the sidelines watching to see whether we head up from here or fill the overnight gap first. (We're at that critical halfway-to-gap-fill point now where things could go either way.)

I am short here from 1568.00 with a very close stop. Countertend scalp trade, not expecting any homeruns here, just trying to pick up some pocket money while waiting for a good place to enter long.

Tell 'em to hurry, will you? They're running out of time.

I'm also out with a small loss (1.5 pts).

If my long gets stopped out, how exactly do I make good on that personal guarantee? :confused: Trader's insurance...what a concept! Ah, wait a minute... You said you *can* personally guarantee a 4-point gain, not that you *will* personally guarantee it. Gotta read the fine print.

I am long here from 1562.25, but this is like watching paint dry today.

Which brings up the issue: What's the best way to determine the "distance" for a trailing stop to keep it out of the noise but still afford maximum protection? Is there some rule of thumb -- say involving multiples of average true range or standard deviations from a MA or Keltner channels or...

Monday is Columbus day, but it looks like I was wrong about the market being closed. It appears that banks are closed October 8th but the NYSE and CME are open. Sorry for the false alarm.

For your 3-day-weekend enjoyment, here is my "big picture" chart of ES, once again showing that we are very near completion of a fifth wave up of a fifth wave up since the Fed discount rate cut. My intermediate measured move target is shown (1585). While we certainly could overshoot this...

Have a nice 3-day weekend, everybody! I'm out of here. I won't be trading much next week because Monday's a holiday and I'll be away Thursday and Friday. Good trading, all!

Also, NQ is 4 points off its HOD while ES is only 1 point off its HOD. NQ has been leading.

Okay, I don't want to be greedy (and stupid), so I just took my profits on the long from 1562.75 at 1570.00 even, for a gain of +7.25. That's 2.5 short of my calculated target, but my gut tells me the bulls are running out of steam here, and they say it's never to early to take a profit. Now...

Yeah, baby! Squeeze dem shorts!

Head fake.